Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (738)	5/6/2003 10:39:56 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4232

An excellent article on the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong from the Lancet: Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong Christl A Donnelly, Azra C Ghani, Gabriel M Leung, Anthony J Hedley, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Laith J Abu-Raddad, Lai-Ming Ho, Thuan-Quoc Thach, Patsy Chau, King-Pan Chan, Tai-Hing Lam, Lai-Yin Tse, Thomas Tsang, Shao-Haei Liu, James H B Kong, Edith M C Lau, Neil M Ferguson, Roy M Anderson Summary Background Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong. Methods We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age and the time from onset to admission. Findings After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6·4 days (95% CI 5·2-7·7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13·2% (9·8-16·8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43·3% (35·2-52·4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric g distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6·8% (4·0-9·6) and 55·0% (45·3-64·7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic. Interpretation Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine. Published online May 7, 2003 Click for PDF image.thelancet.com (614 KB) The full text is well worth reading. That over-age-60 fatality rate would certainly solve the US social security funding problem if SARS ever becomes epidemic here. Peter