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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (823)	5/7/2003 2:02:03 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 4912

<Most of the industries that I follow have a substantial number of companies who have worked hard to improve their business models. There has been a massive effort to become leaner and "better" investments. > But the balance sheets are NOT being repared, but getting worse according to Bernstein at Merrill... not exactly a bear. <Often, these are the belly-achers out there who have some serious misperception concerning the dynamics and inter-workings of the US and global economy. Every step down reinforces their negativity and they are unable to see any potential outcome other than doom and gloom. But there is a failure to see the whole picture. > But at market bottoms it has always been the MAJORITY that is like that. There aren't just 'some bellyachers', WS becomes a bellyacher. <Recession, sure. Tough, double dip recession. It's a distinct possibility. Great depression? I don't see how all the dominoes have aligned themselves to create this eventuality. > Well, for instance the economy has never been more levered before, ever. Companies, individuals, the government. Now, when one assesses the risk of a company, that is EXACTLY what one looks at. Leverage is risk. So while there may not ''be one'', I don't see how anyone can write off the possibility wholesale. Especially when one doesn't have a single piece of data or even a plausible idea of why it can't happen, except... "America is good" America is great in the long run"- DAK