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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rande Is who wrote (56182)5/7/2003 7:15:26 PM
From: Frederick Langford  Respond to of 57584
 
Dang, you are good. Sure would love to see this thread revived...

Fred



To: Rande Is who wrote (56182)5/7/2003 10:27:43 PM
From: Bid Buster  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57584
 
The other side of dis/inflation...(*mine*}
...................
The German Hyperinflation, 1923

Excerpt from Paper Money by "Adam Smith," (George J.W. Goodman), pp. 57-62.

In the mid-1960s, money manager George J.W. Goodman began to write a series of irreverent and witty columns for New York magazine under the borrowed name of capitalism's founding theorist, Adam Smith. As "Adam Smith," Goodman went on to write several bestsellers about economics, the stock market, and global capitalism, among them The Money Game, Supermoney, and Paper Money, from which this account of the Weimar Republic's disastrous hyperinflation is excerpted.




Essay



Before World War I Germany was a prosperous country, with a gold-backed currency, expanding industry, and world leadership in optics, chemicals, and machinery. The German Mark, the British shilling, the French franc, and the Italian lira all had about equal value, and all were exchanged four or five to the dollar. That was in 1914. In 1923, at the most fevered moment of the German hyperinflation, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Mark was one trillion Marks to one dollar, and a wheelbarrow full of money would not even buy a newspaper. Most Germans were taken by surprise by the financial tornado.

"My father was a lawyer," says Walter Levy, an internationally known German-born oil consultant in New York, "and he had taken out an insurance policy in 1903, and every month he had made the payments faithfully. It was a 20-year policy, and when it came due, he cashed it in and bought a single loaf of bread." The Berlin publisher Leopold Ullstein wrote that an American visitor tipped their cook one dollar. The family convened, and it was decided that a trust fund should be set up in a Berlin bank with the cook as beneficiary, the bank to administer and invest the dollar.

In retrospect, you can trace the steps to hyperinflation, but some of the reasons remain cloudy. Germany abandoned the gold backing of its currency in 1914.*Nixon 1973 last nail in the coffin for gold backed USD* The war was expected to be short, so it was financed by government borrowing, not by savings and taxation.*G.W.Bush 2003* In Germany prices doubled between 1914 and 1919.

After four disastrous years Germany had lost the war. Under the Treaty of Versailles it was forced to make a reparations payment in gold-backed Marks, and it was due to lose part of the production of the Ruhr and of the province of Upper Silesia. The Weimar Republic was politically fragile.

But the bourgeois habits were very strong. Ordinary citizens worked at their jobs, sent their children to school and worried about their grades, maneuvered for promotions and rejoiced when they got them, and generally expected things to get better.*J6P 2003* But the prices that had doubled from 1914 to 1919 doubled again during just five months in 1922. Milk went from 7 Marks per liter to 16; beer from 5.6 to 18. There were complaints about the high cost of living. Professors and civil servants complained of getting squeezed. Factory workers pressed for wage increases. An underground economy developed, aided by a desire to beat the tax collector.

On June 24, 1922, right-wing fanatics assassinated Walter Rathenau, the moderate, able foreign minister. Rathenau was a charismatic figure, and the idea that a popular, wealthy, and glamorous government minister could be shot in a law-abiding society shattered the faith of the Germans, who wanted to believe that things were going to be all right. Rathenau's state funeral was a national trauma. The nervous citizens of the Ruhr were already getting their money out of the currency and into real goods -- diamonds,*Gold* works of art, safe real estate *Real Estate*. Now ordinary Germans began to get out of Marks and into real goods.*USD getting sold 2003*

Pianos, wrote the British historian Adam Fergusson, were bought even by unmusical families. Sellers held back because the Mark was worth less every day. As prices went up, the amounts of currency demanded were greater, and the German Central Bank responded to the demands.*Greenspan* Yet the ruling authorities did not see anything wrong.*Bush and company* A leading financial newspaper said that the amounts of money in circulation were not excessively high *Larry Kudlow*. Dr. Rudolf Havenstein, the president of the Reichsbank (equivalent to the Federal Reserve) told an economics professor that he needed a new suit but wasn't going to buy one until prices came down.

Why did the German government not act to halt the inflation? It was a shaky, fragile government, especially after the assassination. The vengeful French sent their army into the Ruhr to enforce their demands for reparations, and the Germans were powerless to resist. More than inflation, the Germans feared unemployment *Americans fear unemployment 2003*. In 1919 Communists had tried to take over,*Neocons take over in 2001?* and severe unemployment might give the Communists another chance. The great German industrial combines -- Krupp, Thyssen, Farben, Stinnes -- condoned the inflation and survived it well. A cheaper Mark, they reasoned, would make German goods cheap and easy to export,*Yup, hear it every day from every one* and they needed the export earnings to buy raw materials abroad. Inflation kept everyone working.

So the printing presses ran, and once they began to run, they were hard to stop.*GREANSPAN* The price increases began to be dizzying. Menus in cafes could not be revised quickly enough. A student at Freiburg University ordered a cup of coffee at a cafe. The price on the menu was 5,000 Marks. He had two cups. When the bill came, it was for 14,000 Marks. "If you want to save money," he was told, "and you want two cups of coffee, you should order them both at the same time."

The presses of the Reichsbank could not keep up though they ran through the night.*Greenspan again* Individual cities and states began to issue their own money *Californa wants to issue IOU's, Egold and talk of other currencies cropping up*. Dr. Havenstein, the president of the Reichsbank, did not get his new suit. A factory worker described payday, which was every day at 11:00 a.m.: "At 11:00 in the morning a siren sounded, and everybody gathered in the factory forecourt, where a five-ton lorry was drawn up loaded brimful with paper money. The chief cashier and his assistants climbed up on top. They read out names and just threw out bundles of notes. As soon as you had caught one you made a dash for the nearest shop and bought just anything that was going." Teachers, paid at 10:00 a.m., brought their money to the playground, where relatives took the bundles and hurried off with them. Banks closed at 11:00 a.m.; the harried clerks went on strike.

The flight from currency that had begun with the buying of diamonds, gold, country houses, and antiques now extended to minor and almost useless items -- bric-a-brac, soap, hairpins.*Seen what people are buying on Ebay?* The law-abiding country crumbled into petty thievery. Copper pipes and brass armatures weren't safe. Gasoline was siphoned from cars. People bought things they didn't need and used them to barter -- a pair of shoes for a shirt, some crockery for coffee. Berlin had a "witches' Sabbath" atmosphere. Prostitutes of both sexes roamed the streets. Cocaine was the fashionable drug. In the cabarets the newly rich and their foreign friends could dance and spend money. Other reports noted that not all the young people had a bad time. Their parents had taught them to work and save, and that was clearly wrong, so they could spend money, enjoy themselves, and flout the old.

The publisher Leopold Ullstein wrote: "People just didn't understand what was happening. All the economic theory they had been taught didn't provide for the phenomenon *Keynesian*. There was a feeling of utter dependence on anonymous powers -- almost as a primitive people believed in magic -- that somebody must be in the know, and that this small group of 'somebodies' must be a conspiracy."

When the 1,000-billion Mark note came out, few bothered to collect the change when they spent it. By November 1923, with one dollar equal to one trillion Marks, the breakdown was complete. The currency had lost meaning.

What happened immediately afterward is as fascinating as the Great Inflation itself. The tornado of the Mark inflation was succeeded by the "miracle of the Rentenmark." A new president took over the Reichsbank, Horace Greeley Hjalmar Schacht, who came by his first two names because of his father's admiration for an editor of the New York Tribune. The Rentenmark was not Schacht's idea, but he executed it, and as the Reichsbank president, he got the credit for it. For decades afterward he was able to maintain a reputation for financial wizardry. He became the architect of the financial prosperity brought by the Nazi party.

Obviously, though the currency was worthless, Germany was still a rich country -- with mines, farms, factories, forests. The backing for the Rentenmark was mortgages on the land and bonds on the factories, but that backing was a fiction; the factories and land couldn't be turned into cash or used abroad. Nine zeros were struck from the currency; that is, one Rentenmark was equal to one billion old Marks. The Germans wanted desperately to believe in the Rentenmark, and so they did. "I remember," said one Frau Barten of East Prussia, "the feeling of having just one Rentenmark to spend. I bought a small tin bread bin. Just to buy something that had a price tag for one Mark was so exciting."

All money is a matter of belief. Credit derives from Latin, credere, "to believe."*Can you believe the amount of U.S. outstanding credit?* Belief was there, the factories functioned, the farmers delivered their produce. The Central Bank kept the belief alive when it would not let even the government borrow further.

But although the country functioned again, the savings were never restored,*Savings? Whats that?* nor were the values of hard work and decency that had accompanied the savings *Hired anyone lately?*. There was a different temper in the country, a temper that Hitler would later exploit with diabolical talent *Hmmm.. Bush?*. Thomas Mann wrote: "The market woman who without batting an eyelash demanded 100 million for an egg lost the capacity for surprise. And nothing that has happened since has been insane or cruel enough to surprise her."

With the currency went many of the lifetime plans of average citizens *Know any retired folks?*. It was the custom for the bride to bring some money to a marriage; many marriages were called off. Widows dependent on insurance found themselves destitute *Whats your premium?*. People who had worked a lifetime found that their pensions would not buy one cup of coffee *Ex Enron employee?*.

Pearl Buck, the American writer who became famous for her novels of China, was in Germany in 1923. She wrote later: "The cities were still there, the houses not yet bombed and in ruins, but the victims were millions of people. They had lost their fortunes, their savings;*How many people you know that are better off now vs. pre 2000?* they were dazed and inflation-shocked and did not understand how it had happened to them and who the foe was who had defeated them. Yet they had lost their self-assurance, their feeling that they themselves could be the masters of their own lives if only they worked hard enough; and lost, too, were the old values of morals, of ethics, of decency."

The fledgling Nazi party, whose attempted coup had failed in 1923, won 32 seats legally in the next election. The right-wing Nationalist party won 106 seats, having promised 100 percent compensation to the victims of inflation and vengeance on the conspirators who had brought it.

Copyright © 1981 by George J. W. Goodman. All rights reserved.

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To: Rande Is who wrote (56182)5/8/2003 5:20:43 PM
From: Trumptown  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
Rande -You are brilliant!

Have you been trading recently at all?



To: Rande Is who wrote (56182)5/9/2003 11:05:32 PM
From: KevinThompson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57584
 
Rande,

Asset deflation will become a serious problem. This article is from the "Market Wrapup" at Financial Sense Online; May 9, 2003:

financialsense.com

==========================================

The U.S. Peso Falls Again

The U.S. dollar was tagged again this week for a loss of 1.8% with the U.S. Dollar Index closing at 95.16, down from last week’s close of 96.94. The dollar has now been down seven out of the last eight weeks. In spite of the dollar’s decline, U.S. Treasury bonds and notes gained slightly for the week with the yields declining to 4.67% for the 30-year bond and 3.67% for the 10-year note. The broad stock market indexes were little changed from last Friday with the Dow Industrials adding 22 points to close at 8605, the S&P 500 added a skinny 3 points to close at 933, and the NASDAQ gained 17 points to close at 1520. Without today’s gains, the market would be negative for the week. Stocks are sure looking like they are due for a pull-back.

If you take a look at the Dow chart, you can see that we have had higher stock prices on lower volume and declining momentum indicators. The divergence in price and momentum are a precursor to lower prices. With the lack of a convincing breakout from last week’s bullish rising triangle formation, the Dow is now taking the same shape as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The VIX (Market Volatility Index) is showing extreme complacency. The index dropped 7% today to close at 22.04, which is the lowest reading since May of last year. Stocks continue to hold their recent gains even as the economic data deteriorates and more American workers find their way to get in line for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims have now exceeded 400,000 for twelve consecutive weeks, which has not happened in over a decade!

Buy the Rumor and Sell the News

Earlier today I was busy working on allocations within client accounts while the Dow was up about 40 points. About two hours later I looked at the screen to see that the index was up over 100 points. What happened to launch stocks higher? Seemingly nothing! I am interpreting today’s move as, “Buy the rumor and sell the news.” It seems that the market is responding to the economic weakness sighted by the Federal Reserve in their press release this past Tuesday. There are now rumors abounding that we could see a rate cut at the next Fed meeting in June. I scratch my head and ask myself if the spin of a possible rate cut is needed to keep Treasury bond prices high, and to keep demand for Treasury instruments high so that the dealers that bought the $58 billion in Treasury debt this week can keep selling it to the public. If there is no rate cut next month, both stocks and bonds should come down. Is that what the Fed is alluding to? Let’s take a look at their statement from Tuesday.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent.

Recent readings on production and employment, though mostly reflecting decisions made before the conclusion of hostilities, have proven disappointing. However, the ebbing of geopolitical tensions has rolled back oil prices, bolstered consumer confidence, and strengthened debt and equity markets. These developments, along with the accommodative stance of monetary policy and ongoing growth in productivity, should foster an improving economic climate over time.

Although the timing and extent of that improvement remain uncertain, the Committee perceives that over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal. In contrast, over the same period, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level. The Committee believes that, taken together, the balance of risks to achieving its goals is weighted toward weakness over the foreseeable future.

Spin of the Week

We could spend lots of time taking the press release apart piece by piece, but let’s focus on one particular sentence in their statement. This one sentence has got to take the prize for the “Spin of the Week.” In the third paragraph they state, “In contrast, over the same period, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level.”

First of all, let’s be sure that the time frame that they are referring to is, “The next few quarters” as noted in the preceding sentence. For conversation’s sake we can safely say sometime in the next nine months. The next key to the sentence is the word “probability” along with some clarification to the degree of probability stated as “though minor.” This should be translated as more than a 50% chance (probable) though minor (let’s call that less than a 70% chance) that we will see, “An unwelcome substantial fall in inflation.”

What is Inflation? With all of the disinformation out there, most people don’t even know how to define inflation. All these years we have been spoon fed the notion that an increase in inflation is a bad thing. Most people think of inflation as having to pay more money for the things we need and use. To be more specific, it is usually referred to as consumer inflation. That is why inflation is usually measured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Producer Price Index). We usually hear that low inflation is a good thing. So how can the Fed say that it will be an “unwelcome” large decline in inflation? Also note that they could have said “deflation” instead of a “fall in inflation.” Funny use of words.

Wouldn’t you welcome a decline in price for school tuition, homeowners insurance, medical and prescription costs, lower gas prices, more affordable gas and electric bills, knock 20% off your weekly grocery bill, etc.? So how can it be considered unwelcome? I’ll tell ya’ how. It’s called ASSET DEFLATION. What are the biggest assets Americans hold? I would have to say they are stocks, bonds (meaning debt instruments of all kinds) and real estate. That is the only way the deflation would be considered unwelcome.

To digress for a moment, inflation occurs when the Federal Reserve INFLATES the supply of money relative to the economic expansion of goods and services (GDP). When excess money is created it has to go somewhere. Back in the seventies, Americans endured tremendous inflation of consumer goods after the excess money creation of the sixties that was used to fight the war in Vietnam. The dollar link to gold was broken back in 1971 and the consumer inflation took-off straight through the seventies. This last time around, it has been very different. The excess money creation of the nineties (massive monetary expansion) found its way into financial assets. Remember that now-a-days, debt is considered an asset. All things financial have been over-inflated. The first victim has already been the stock markets. Could they fall more…I would have to say, “Yes” based on today’s price to earnings ratios over 30, when traditionally anything over 20 is considered overvalued. Could bond prices come down? I would have to say, “Yes” again, since we are at 40-year lows on interest rates. There’s just not much room for bond prices to go much higher. Can real estate prices come down? I again would have to say, “Yes.” After the last few years of 20%+ gains in real estate values, there is plenty of room to come down. When bond prices decline, forcing interest rates higher, how will unemployed workers or even working people for that matter, be able to afford today’s home prices if mortgage rates were to go back above 10% as they were back in the eighties? Higher mortgage rates will lead to lower prices so that people will be able to afford the monthly payments.

I’m beginning to ramble, but let’s pull it together. I would like to replace the Fed’s sentence in the above press release with my own interpretation of what they are saying. It would go something like this, “Sometime over the next nine months we will probably see a substantial deflation of financial assets.” In my mind, it will probably happen sooner than later, because next year they will need to clear the way for an election-year rally to get President Bush re-elected. We shall see if the Fed cooperates. So far it looks like they will as there seems to be no hesitation to continue pumping liquidity into the system and pegging long term interest rates below 5%. That is why we continue to see the dollar in decline.

The Fed is really between a rock and a hard spot. They can’t raise interest rates to strengthen the dollar, as higher rates would crush any chance of an economic recovery. They continue to expand money faster than GDP which will put continued downward pressure on the dollar. First quarter GDP came in at an annualized rate of 1.6%, but monetary aggregates (as measured by M-2) have been growing at an annualized rate of 7.2% for the last year. With all the spin on Bubblevision, it looks like they are trying to force the excess liquidity back into the stock market to re-inflate the bubble. We need foreigners to invest roughly $1.5 billion per day to support our negative balance of payments. With a falling dollar it will be difficult to attract foreign investors.

For now, we’ll just keep plodding along. Watch out for the complacency in stock prices. That is when investors tend to get caught off-guard when stocks tumble. The Fed is actively buying debt instruments off the market which is providing excess liquidity to prop-up stocks. If the dollar falls too far, too fast, they will have to back off on the money pump. We shall see how it all unfolds as we continue to monitor the markets. In the meantime, best of luck to you in all of your investment decisions!

Copyright © 2003 Mike Hartman
Email Mike
May 9, 2003