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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (411)	5/8/2003 8:31:39 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

<Once the 'recovered' are half the cumulative total infected, that seems to be an indicator that the battle is on the way to a human win.> who.int Hong Kong is on the road to victory. Now, just China and Taiwan need to deal with it. With people over age 60 at 50% risk of dying from it, especially if they smoke, there is a strong incentive for Jiang Zemin and cronies to really get serious. It's Karma that the gerontocracy covered Sars up until it had got a good grip and now it's going to kill them [unless they can persuade the younger people to take it seriously enough to kill it off]. Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (411)	5/14/2003 12:10:21 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

who.int x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [495] 13 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[573 with one day to go to finish the week] Meanwhile, on a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx 14 May xxxxxxxxx [estimate with only one day to go] Weekly deaths now reducing. Victory in sight. Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (411)	5/15/2003 5:32:53 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [495] .14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[587] On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxx Weekly deaths decreasing. That's very hopeful. The Chinese infection rate is dropping too. But if China isn't reporting their military Sars deaths, that'll make a difference, but not much [there aren't many of the population in the military]. who.int It looks like a victory is in prospect. Singapore showed how to stop it dead, literally. Vietnam too. There's no need for defeatism or fatalism. I'd like to see infection rates for other infectious diseases. Where people are defending themselves against sars, they'll also defend against other diseases = collateral damage of an excellent type. Mqurice