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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (884)	5/7/2003 8:32:27 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 4905

there are far too many assumptions that go into that number. wouldn't you like to see the assumptions first? you can probably find the link on the RE thread. there are a lot of assumptions that go into estate/pension fund planning and it's never perfect. but people have to try. they usually start with the long-term returns for their various asset classes and go from there. however, long-term returns over two centuries of American ascendancy from the third world to the world's supreme superpower may not be too accurate over the next century, where we could have a gradual or rapid decline in real income and probably a gradual decline in geopolitical dominance. the forward return assumptions everybody uses are those of the US in the century where it was the great winner. there were a lot of losers and they mostly did not have good returns. so our returns in the 21st century may not be too good unless we're the great winner. since this thread has convinced me stocks are going to Zero long b efore then well, hopefully that will not happen, as that would mean the US falls apart completely. but many countries saw their markets go to zero in the past century. discussion about correlation between demographics and the stock market has been discussed ad nauseum not the stuff in the book i mentioned.