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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex MG who wrote (17112)	5/8/2003 12:21:39 PM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Dont Know Richard Rhodes, never heard of him but these few paragraphs lead me to believe that He Missed the rally and is now projecting his NEEDS onto the trade in hopes for redemption. But who knows? Traders are tactical squadrons for wish fullfillment, portfolio managers are a mixed lot of worry now or worry later...So have no doubt that the traders will try and execute tactics commensurate to this piece. OTOH Portfolio managers who dont recognize the prevailing trend will be harvested of their precious shares by the very traders they are supposed to in agreement with....what a paradox. My surmise comes directly from these two carefully worded scenarios spun to the aims of the writer. "To explain, the rally has now progressed to levels considered to be substantial overhead resistance -- I did not expect the rally to move this far, but it has. I would expect sellers to move into the market to establish short positions, and as the indices begin to fail, I would further expect traders and portfolio managers to begin selling. I expect modest selling at first, and then at an increased level as the indices move lower than many expect. If prices are able to break below the 200-day moving averages on the respective indices, then a major bullish technical tenet will be removed and selling will be the order of the day. However, as an alternative, if the indices do successfully test these moving averages over the course of several weeks, then it will be clearer a longer-term low has been established and long positions will be warranted."

To: Alex MG who wrote (17112)	5/8/2003 11:19:17 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

However, as an alternative, if the indices do successfully test these moving averages over the course of several weeks, then it will be clearer a longer-term low has been established and long positions will be warranted. This is what they call the point of recognition- and it will be too late. Rhodes is already violating his own Trading Rules #1, #2, #4. Trading Rule #13 then gets violated as he will try to play catch up for the losses this year and press trades. Rhodes already missed the second half of Rule #17. Best, JT