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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (959)	5/8/2003 11:41:29 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4905

<the masses are right more than they are wrong. if they weren't, there would never be a trend. returnwise, they lose most of it because of the turns.> 1.)Being right 'more often' than wrong does not positive expected value make as years of being right can be wiped out in one. 2.) you are looking only at the latest event, the longest bull in history. You are also going up against history, and many many important writings on the subject: cyberhaven.com I read the first one only, but it is highly recommended. 3.) The latest 'event', which you sight is NOT over yet... so it is NOT a data point. 4.) It is unclear to me what the average investor is "in at" in the current market. I've heard some pretty scary estimates. 5.) We alreay know there has been quite a wealth transfer from J6P to IPO wunderkinds. Not going to help the average investor in this going forward when the numbers are all counted. <are you prepared for that inevitability? > Sure, I'll probably be at my 7 year old daughters graduation party [high school or college, hmmmmm? I'll probably miss it by THAT much!] and miss the bottom entirely. :) DAK