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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimsioi who wrote (30765)	5/9/2003 12:34:30 AM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 36161

Jims. To answer your question about FA. Fundamentals vary considerably among these 3 AWA others I've worked with and posted about in the past few years. Some have very little debt, others quite a bit. Some hedge little or none of their production, others are more active hedgers whether it's forward sales, collars, options or a combination of those instruments. Because I've some field experience drafting sub-surface geological maps to generate prospects (1986 - 1990) in one of the mature Mid-Continent basins, the way I evaluate which E&Ps are worth positioning is a lot more reflective of that background. And different than how most other web posters conceptualize <valuation> of an E&P. To me such questions as price to CF, price to sales, to book etc are all derived from the geology. Or more specifically, the degree of success the earth science team and management has been able to demonstrate in assembling a large portfolio of of highly prospective acreage and then showing a good record of drilling success that monetizes the acreage into highly profitable production. Understand that and you'll be earlier to the party than the cash flow and other quantitative mavens. But hopefully not too early.<g> To the extent that I can estimate whether that is present in an E&P I'm DDing? Then, the other more commonly used FA and TA tools come into the picture. I've posted a little about geology & engineering a few times, over the years. But most people don't have the field background to derive any benefit from that kind of discussion. Naturally they're more interested in brain storming about trend lines, MAs, debt to equity, or CF ratios, etc, etc. Those, AWA other issues, are certainly important. But FWIW, they come after the geology in my DD. Isopatch

To: jimsioi who wrote (30765)	5/9/2003 2:36:24 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

Hey Jims. Nice rally in PENG after midday entry. Were you paying attention this time so you could buy?! <<New gasser position in sm cap PENG (Prima Energy), in size. Bot from 19.08 all the way up to 19.28. Too busy to even compute basis. Back to portfolio work. Later, hopefully. Afterall, it is Friday:o)) Iso>> Message 18929684 CRZO, DBLE and EENC also strong. ROYL giving you slow pokes ANOTHER chance to start a position.<g> You can hold out for another dip under 5 but that's not guaranteed. AND some fav CanRoys are approaching multi-year highs !! Portfolio now decisively into new all time record high territory. YEEE....HAAAAAA !!!! Isopatch