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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83828)	5/9/2003 11:26:44 AM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 99985

Tom, Here's a 15-year II chart, courtesy of Decision Point: cache.wsrn.com Notice the shift in sentiment in 1995 that continues at present. Before 1995, 55% bears were more common than 55% bulls. There hasn't been a single reading close to 55% bears since, while we've had 13 (now 14) or so periods of 55% or greater bulls. That suggests to me that we have yet to correct the sentiment of the mid-late 1990s. Paul

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83828)	5/9/2003 11:23:31 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Investors Intelligence Survey: I have studied this survey extensively and used to rely on it till it stopped being effective. While I dont have time to give a detailed review of its defects right now, they are essentially two: * In the late 90s, it sort of got stuck in a high bullish position, and hasnt ever gone back down to what used to be the levels of pessimism that correlated with intermediate and longer term lows. * It lags by almost 3 weeks. This isnt too significant in a plateau like pattern, such as the current one, but can be quite costly when we get a v shaped high or low. I've been using a 3-Survey average of Market Vane, Consensus Inc and the AAII Survey in recent years. I'll be updating it this w/e. I also use Jake Bernstein's DSIs for corroboration, and to fine tune sell and buy signals. I dont necessarily disagree with your conclusions, just the info on which you're relying.