Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9741)	5/9/2003 10:56:27 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95640

From Briefing.com: 9:07AM Intel sees strong demand in China, expects recovery this year (INTC) 18.87: Reuters reports that President Paul Otellini sees strong demand in the key Chinese market and expects a recovery in the semiconductor industry this year, according to the German financial daily Handelsblatt; Otellini told Handelsblatt in an interview that INTC's new wireless chip Centrino had met the co's full expectations and that Chinese demand remained strong. 10:16AM Nvidia (NVDA) 18.98 +2.92: After the close of the market yesterday, PC graphics chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings of $0.12 per share, beating Reuters Research consensus estimate of $0.10 per share. Revenues of $405 mln were 30% below revenues in the same period last year, and lower than the consensus estimate of $410 mln. NVDA indicated at a March analyst meeting that it would have some production problems on 0.13u and that poor product availability was behind NVDA, which resulted in lower revenue for Q103. The company admitted then, too, that it lagged ATI’s (00C0) 9800 PRO in performance. At that time, the Company also stated that its NV34 will retail for about $79. NVDA is looking to gain momentum in the notebook environment with its GeForce Go product based on its high performance product in the workstation environment. NVDA is confident that the NV35 will help it regain the performance lead in the high end from ATI. This will only be helped out by the launch before the back to school season starts. NVDA’s partnership with IBM (inked in the quarter) will positively affect its R&D capability and improve its efficiency in the most current cycle. However, margins will likely not benefit in the near term as IBM resources will be very costly. IBM will certainly improve its time to market for some of its high end chips. The IBM deal is one reason the Company guided to lower gross margins in the coming quarter. The Company guided to a strong upcoming quarter with revenues jumping 12% - 18%, as booking in all segments look solid. Certainly this encouraging guidance is the reason for the strong open. Traders initially saw the release as less than positive, as NVDA did not beat revenue estimates and saw a significant decrease in revenue from the previous year. The Company noted that the previous quarter was traditionally a seasonally soft quarter. Revenues in the coming quarter will be higher as NVDA expects flat growth in PC sales and rapid growth of digital media. Going forward, the Company said it expects operating expenses to grow 5% - 10% in the coming quarters and may also see gross margins decrease slightly. With the strong projections for growth and higher expenses, and lower gross margins, Briefing.com suggests that investors take a wait and see approach with NVDA. --Brian Bolan, Briefing.com 8:55AM NVIDIA rallies post-earnings (NVDA) 16.06: Short-sellers are being blown out of the stock this morning after NVDA responds favorably to last night's upside EPS surprise. Initial reaction to the report was negative, as NVDA's revs came in light. However, as we noted yesterday in the Thomas Weisel preview of the qtr, firm predicted that top-line could miss due to production delay/yield issues at foundry Taiwan Semi. With the rev shortfall somewhat expected, investors/traders are taking the stock higher this morning. The advance is coming despite very little in the way of positive comments by analysts this morning. The general view this morning on Wall Street seems to be that the quarter was okay, but stock is still above fair value. Of course, most of the firms expressing valuation concerns have been negative on the name for some time, and maintained this negative stance as NVDA has blown through their low-teens price targets. With a short-interest of 12.5% of the float, NVDA has caught many investors leaning the wrong way into its qtr. Stock has accelerated gains in pre-market as the positions have been covered. Stock now showing a gain of 16% in pre-market. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MU+MXIM+NSM+NVDA+NVLS+TER+TXN+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+^STI.O+SMH&d=t RtS

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9741)	5/9/2003 12:38:13 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

I think the longer equipment orders "bottom", the more likely the next up cycle in the industry will be healthier for those businesses who have not only survived but have used the downturn to become more efficient companies. Similarly, it should bode well for Cary's big eight, as they will not only have survived but they have the leading edge technology that will (continue to) be in the high demand segment of the industry. One should expect a few "false starts" by the market as this bottoming process continues. As long as orders are slow (but picking up), these stocks should do fine. It would take another drop in demand for the rug to be pulled out from under the sector, imo. This is also another reason why I think it's wise to keep the bullish bias on the semis. mh

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9741)	5/9/2003 4:52:42 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95640

Does anyone know just why it is deemed "necessary" for chip device sizes to drop below 0.13u ? There really isn't that much market demand for this type of chip. It seems apparent to me that consumers certainly don't care and it is easier and cheaper to just stay with current technologies for the next 5 years. I see no compelling reason (except maybe for microprocessor and memory speed enhancement) for the majority of chip makers to have faster chips. We are not fully utilizing the chip capabilities that we have now. It seems a better solution would be to just increase the number of devices on the board and use software to increase consumer component performance. If my assessment is true, then very few chip companies really need to purchase next generation equipment right now and can benefit financially from exploiting the equipment that they currently use for chip manufacturing with only occasional upgrades required until a compelling need for smaller devices is demanded by the market. BB