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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (33384)	5/9/2003 6:03:41 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hi energyplay, Early signs of summer -- at least in the Southwest and West Here in the desert southwest, for the first time in as long as I can remember, we have actually enjoyed a rather lengthy spring. Our usual complaint is that we tend to go directly from winter temperatures into summer temperatures, with spring temperatures lasting maybe a week or two at best. This year though, we have had wonderful weather. I have yet to crank up the air conditioner, either in the car or in the house. We've had maybe a mere handful of days where the temperatures went above 90 degrees (F). So as far as the author's comments about early signs of summer in the southwest, nothing more than unfounded rumor... KJC

To: energyplay who wrote (33384)	5/11/2003 6:44:25 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi energyplay, I am done with DD-ing Enerplus, that is short of seeing the energy fields and counting the gas molecules Message 18933216 I would add to the reference post that the trust has several values not explicitly recognized in the model: (a) on-going concern value beyond 2011 based on the remaining 5 years' production worth of reserves; (b) call option value of oil/gas reserve pricing; So, or in all, the market price of the unit is slightly higher than my explicitly but conservatively calculated value. I intend to model the remainder of my energy royalty plays, and verify the calculation of each is in-line with respective reserve and cost profile, and not out of line with their possibly different management philosophy (distribution, acquisition, etc). The model is of course only a guide, and is only done so that one is not flying completely blind and without a compass;0) Now, whenever Enerplus announces some major to-do, or energy price makes a big shift, I will interact with the model and pretend I know what should happen:0) Chugs, Jay