Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (73440)	5/10/2003 12:24:03 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

4 Year Cycle extensions Out of 26 4-year cycles, 9 have extended past 49 months. That is 35 percent. Of the 4-year cycles that have extended beyond 49 months, these cycles averaged 56.44 months in duration. If this 4-year cycle has indeed extended, the next window of time for it to bottom is with the next seasonal low and that bottom is not ideally due until October 2003. That would take the 4-year cycle count out to about 61 months depending on the timing of the seasonal cycle bottom. This is not outside of the historical norm. he longest extension was 68 months, which was the 4-year cycle from July 1932 to March 1938. The 4-year cycle from April 1994 to September 1998 was 56 months. The 4-year cycle from August 1982 to October 1987 was 62 months. Yes, I think we could have an extended 4-year cycle on our hands and the current seasonal cycle is about to provide us with that confirmation. financialsense.com