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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ira Player who wrote (9753)	5/10/2003 6:44:02 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

RE: "...semiconductor feature sizes will hit a wall because of the cost of the Fabs, the risk they represent and the limited use for which these advanced devices are required." I think feature sizes will "hit a wall" when technical problems make the yield ramp too difficult to be economical. I don't agree with your "cost of Fabs" idea because fabs shells are not significantly more expensive and the shells may be gradually filled with production lines when there is demand for the output. RE: "Don't be fooled by the limited sample you are reviewing..." I am not fooled because I don't agree with the generally accepted techie themes. I am not waiting for "IT spending" to come back. I think IT has a slow growth future ahead of it. I have said that the torch has been passed from technology that improves productivity to technology that is integral to the product. The population at large has had little problem adopting digital cameras, DVDs, and wireless phones. The new picture phones, a narrowband precursor to wideband full motion audio/video, is doing very well. WiFi is doing well and the new high definition, flat panel televisions are a natural as WiFi displays. RE: "It will take longer than is hoped for the full utilization of what we have, much less have the applications for what is next." I am not sure what you mean by "what we have." I have been posting at SI since 1995. I have not seen much in the way of improvement. I am talking about things like augmenting the thread with "conferences." Conferences are some or all of us sitting around a "virtual" conference table and holding face to face, real time discussions. I don't see any problems with people adopting this capability and we don't have anything like it now. RE: "The applications and the acceptance of them must catch up with the capabilities of the hardware." The "hardware" and "software" companies, IBM, CSCO, HP, MSFT, ORCL have dominated technology. I believe that is yesterday. Today, and, more importantly, tomorrow, the chip will dominate. "Boxes" and software will have a diminishing relative contribution. "Boxes" will be consumer products and network support of them. Software will be transparent. We are not sure if there is "software" in our DVDs because our DVDs don't crash every day. I worked as a software engineer from 1968 to 2001. I am not easily impressed with technology. I think that current and past technology have just hinted at the future potential and that chips, Moore's Law, and other technology advances are gathering critical mass for a quantum jump that will change our world to a much greater degree than anything we have seen in the past. They key will be that individuals will have the power and control through their "personal nodes."