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To: Earlie who wrote (240040)5/11/2003 10:51:29 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Respond to of 436258
 
kind of hard to debate clarity <g>

can you put something up a little less clear? <vbg>



To: Earlie who wrote (240040)5/11/2003 1:22:07 PM
From: Cactus Jack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Earlie,

Thanks as always for the thoughts.

My wife and I attended the annual live/silent auction for our kids' private grade school last night (Northern California). For the past 6 years that we've been involved (and, I'm told, before that as well), this event has sold out weeks in advance, with folks literally throwing their cash at anything and everything in the heat of the moment. Of course, free-flowing booze tends to give an assist. <G>

Last night, attendance was down 20% from last year, the typical "buzz" (both kinds) didn't seem to be present, and folks were far more restrained with their money than I've seen them in prior years. As an example, one item that sold last year for $4,000 was brought back for an encore; it went for $800 this year. Sports memorabilia that typically would have intense bidding didn't even draw an initial bid.

Just anecdotal evidence, but this middle class enclave seems to be following the rest of the country in its belt-tightening.

jpg



To: Earlie who wrote (240040)5/11/2003 1:30:26 PM
From: John Madarasz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
When lay-offs come in unending waves, two things happen. Consumers who become unemployed cease to be consumers and those who are still employed start to pull in their horns in fear of job loss.

One other important thing happens also Earlie, a person with no job loses the ability to re-finance thier home, and incur the additioanl debt to stay afloat. I seen NO mention at all of this in the mainstream press, so maybe it's not an issue. I wouldn't be surprised to see this bone get tossed on the pyre regardless.

In regards to oil, I can only say this...I see the long term charts as very bullish until proven otherwise...

stockcharts.com

again, no where do i see this scenario being hawked, which gives it all the more creedence imho.

Nice post Earlie...as usual. Thxs.

Best,

JM



To: Earlie who wrote (240040)5/14/2003 10:41:32 PM
From: tom rusnak  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
<<<Earlie from Earlie:>>>

Always so enjoyable listening to you talk to yourself. Darn near poetry in my mind. Only thing I've ever seen better written was somethin called the "Tech Review". Wonder whatever happened to that nice Canadian fella, Larry, who used to put that one out?

When speakin of "mortally wounded" I always like to look for the ones to leverage with LEAPS, only worry is whether they can dance on the edge of the precipice long enough to frustrate us or our PUTS into expiring first. Do you suppose "F" is a good candidate for jumping off lovers leap before JAN05?

I know you have an aversion to naming names, probably tired of wisecrackers demanding you be held accountable, but perhaps you can remind us of any mortally wounded names you may have already let slip here at the ol SI where the LEAPS may be available and juicy??

Didn't Bezos get a mention in the "death spiral" category at one time? What's your current opinion on AMZN?

All the best from your friend on the underside of the planet,

tom
Sydney

ps. Finally got access to ESPN down under: hockey is so much better to watch played on ice then artificial turf!