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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (33497)	5/11/2003 8:53:34 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi DJ, <<Do I get it right: you cut off its head today and watch it bleed until 2011?>> Yup, and if I could value manufacturing/service businesses this way, I would, but I cannot, because ... (a) they do not distribute any substantial portion of their cash flow (b) they have no reserve of innovations (Q and pharma patents are not reserves in the strictest sense because competitor innovation nullifies the 'reserve') (c) their pricing is subject to management judgement and therefore human error (remember Global whatever) In other words, how much is Qualcomm worth if it only manages to pay a tiny dividends? Well, to be precisely, a tiny amount;0) <<Must be designed as absolutely, metaphysically the bottom slash worst-case scenario I assume? What else can happen - on the negative side -? Reassesment of reserves? Germans discover hydrogene-based perpetuum mobile?>> Regime change Iraq style, but in Canada ;0) Chugs, Jay