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To: energyplay who wrote (33543)	5/12/2003 4:44:20 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi energyplay, <<ERF ... more 'reserves' appearing.... >> extensions, discoveries and whatnot. I will start doing the model for NCE Petro Fund, and then Primewest. Chugs, Jay

To: energyplay who wrote (33543)	5/12/2003 11:03:41 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello energyplay, I have just revised & completed the valuation models for three royalty trusts, and I make some observations in the way of a guess :0) At the current indicated market prices: Enerplus uk.finance.yahoo.com @ CAD 29.60 NCE Petrofund uk.finance.yahoo.com @ CAD 11.09 Prime West uk.finance.yahoo.com @ CAD 25.51 For the new investor, ERF (ERF) will likely produce an internal rate of return of better than 5.57%, NCE Petro (NCF) will likely do better than 4.51%, and Prime West (PWI) will like do better than 0%. Since PWI already has a higher realized natural gas sales price than ERF and NCE, and has a short reserve life index than ERF, therefore may have less of a potential relative to ERF and NCE:0? The curious can find the valuation analysis (one worksheet per target trust in multiple worksheet Excel file) at achamchen.com . The model assumes that each Trust exploits its reserve at steady rate, with no acquisition, extension, discovery or divestment, until such time its net asset value (total assets less total liabilities) equals zero even if its reserve may still be positive. To get updated valuation, type the number of months remaining in the year in cell B354 as a positive number, and type the current CAD stock price in cell E355 as a negative number. Chugs, Jay [EDIT: a reminder … Keep track of news at oilpatchupdates.com Keep track of pricing trends at oilnergy.com Listen to management presentation at 66.207.210.50 ]