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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (1107)	5/12/2003 2:48:10 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4912

I understood that part the first time you said it. -g- What I'm saying is that you are always using something that happened in the past, whether it happened to that particular company or a different company. It would have been almost impossible to have made an accurate projection back in 1993 of what would happen to CSCO's business over the next five years looking at the growth of any other company or industry. It was pretty impossible to see the growth in the Internet coming with its attendant explosion in worldwide demand for routers. Back when people first started talking about the Internet they assumed that the government would have to pony up the money to pay for its roll out. Then by the time JNPR came along people were projecting CSCO like growth onto them....based on what? Looking at what CSCO did (the past) and on how fast the Internet had grown in the past without really taking into account that some sort of viable business plan had yet to emerge to pay for that growth. What I'm saying is that people can't see the future, they are always projecting the future from something in the past (sometimes from past booms/busts).