To: quehubo who wrote (22494 ) 5/13/2003 8:56:27 AM From: Tomas Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206363 IEA warns of lower-than-expected oil stocks Financial Times, May 13 By Toby Shelley in London Industrialised countries are heading into the summer with much lower stocks of oil than expected, an unprecedented 260m barrels less than last year, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday. The energy security watchdog of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development said this situation developed before the loss of Iraqi crude to the market because of the US-led invasion, and prior to the start of seasonal maintenance in the North Sea and the spring pick-up in petrol demand in the US. The situation is only now becoming evident because of a lag in the compiling of inventory data as opposed to production and consumption statistics. In the first quarter, industry stocks were drawn down at a rate of 1.4m barrels a day, compared to a draw of 300,000 b/d at the same time last year. They ended March at 2.39m barrels. In fact, stocks of crude rose slightly as other members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries moved to compensate for lower output in Venezuela and Nigeria. The heavy draw on products was spurred by higher demand than anticipated and heavy refinery maintenance in the US. In its May oil market report the IEA cautions that a combination of producer policy and corporate policy are building into the market a mechanism that militates against the rebuilding of stocks. The IEA argues that Opec's moves last month to keep crude prices within its target band came too quickly. By tightening supply, Opec has caused a short-term squeeze, pushing up near-term prices relative to longer-term prices. This means refiners cannot hedge to cover themselves for the costs of storage. At the same time, the emphasis on return-on-capital employed within oil companies has driven downstream divisions to minimise stocks, exacerbating the impact of tighter supply upstream. ___________________________________________________________________ Quehubo: Sorry, can't find any compilation of injection expectations from Bloomberg.