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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (17057)	5/13/2003 10:38:16 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78659

ramble regarding insurance stocks: Yes, still holding ACGL. There's not much discussion of past insurance picks here. There could be. Many of the insurance stocks people have mentioned here have done pretty well over the past few years. For example, IPCR which you also mentioned. For some balance to the discussion, I could recall (but I prefer not to -g-) a least a couple of insurance picks I made that subsequently went right down into bankruptcy. Ouch. Ouch. OUCH! I would say my biggest regret recently as regards insurance stocks is my failure to add to positions in either or both of ABK or MBI when they were around lows a few months ago. We had a case of a short attack by an apparently dink hedge fund (whose negative report on MBIA was subsequently revised after MBIA officials complained of its "inaccuracies"). These two companies and stocks have been talked about many times over the past few years here and on the Buffettology thread. For me, it was a case where I owned the companies and had some confidence (though not enough apparently) in their management and business, and from discussions with others on the threads I knew where the good buying points might be. I just did not have the courage to buy when those points showed. finance.yahoo.com Naturally, having regrets is part of buying and selling and of not buying and not selling. Of course though, one is still grateful for the blessings one does receive. Paul S.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (17057)	6/20/2003 9:08:43 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78659

Dale Baker, et. al., re. ACGL: "a smaller property-casualty insurer and reinsurer you've never heard of", (ha ha) according to Business Week Special Report - Summer Investment Guide. They like the stock. businessweek.com "And they're cheap. Arch Capital, which generated revenues of $436 million in the first quarter of 2003, is now trading at 12 times 2003 earnings." If some reporter or analyst believes 12x for an insurer is cheap, he or she is wrong! It's not the p/e that necessarily makes it cheap, and 12x itself isn't historically cheap either. imo. Holding my small ACGL position. If ACGL could just get their ROE up. A small incremental improvement in ROE would translate to substantial earnings (because book value is substantial). I assume the climate for raising or holding rates is still good (and as Bus. Wk. (and you) have said, some of these companies like ACGL don't carry baggage, like asbestos claims), so MAYBE ACGL might actually be able to increase earnings next year and following. Paul Senior (Also have a small position in MRH, mentioned in the Bus.Wk. article. It was a stock suggested for review by Room222 on Buffettology thread.)