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To: Tomas who wrote (22523)5/13/2003 2:18:42 PM
From: Tomas  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206363
 
Global oil supply pressure
Oil & Gas Journal online, HOUSTON, May 13

Merrill Lynch Global Securities Research & Economics Group analyst Michael Rothman said the global oil balance appears to face more supply pressure than his firm previously estimated. His comment was based upon inventory numbers from the International Energy Agency.

"The IEA's revised figures for end-February placed storage at the lowest level ever relative to normal since we begin tracking the data in 1984. . . . For end-March, the IEA's first pass at inventories places stocks at their second lowest level ever (relative to normal)," Rothman said in a research note Tuesday.

He listed an end-March inventory deficit at 183 million bbl, which was 60 million bbl below the Merrill Lynch forecast published a month ago.

"The storage data flies in the face of most market pundits who posit a view that we're facing a 'super glut' of crude," Rothman said. "April's production for the OPEC 10 countries stands roughly 800,000 b/d above the recently adjusted quota which, if maintained, hardly comes close (to) putting a major dent in the now huge inventory deficit, particularly given our own supply-demand projections and the underlying call for OPEC crude for the (second quarter) period."