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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (98109)	5/13/2003 11:19:13 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Got this mail today. Have you seen any similar rumors? "World War III has begun. Russia is backing Saddam Hussein in a war of attrition. The U.S. stock market could plunge, taking out $500 billion equity! Investing for a War Economy by James DiGeorgia, Publisher 21st Century Investor Dear fellow investor: With the help of the KGB, Saddam Hussein is alive and well in Russia, and about to begin his underground jihad to drive the U.S. out of Iraq! Here's the breaking story... The Bush administration has a HUGE problem. Where's Saddam Hussein? The Pentagon says they killed him with 4 bunker-busting bombs. And the President says, "The regime of Saddam Hussein is no more." But in the meantime, they're frantically combing the rubble for a big toe, a little finger, a scrap of skin that might make a DNA match, as they are desperate to officially claim Hussein DEAD! But they're not going to get a DNA match. British Intelligence says Saddam Hussein is ALIVE. And our Middle Eastern intelligence sources tell us the same. And that means the Bush administration's worst-case scenario is about to unfold. Saddam Hussein's sudden disappearance along with nearly every top-ranking member of his regime was secretly planned months ago with the help of Syria and Russia! Hussein made it safely to Syria immediately following his public appearance in Baghdad on April 9th. But he was in Syria for only a few hours before the KGB whisked him to safe hiding in Russia. U.S. victory over Iraq too easy The details of Hussein's daring plan are just now coming to light. He knew he couldn't win a conventional war against the U.S. He knew that to stand and fight was suicide. So, he conspired with the KGB and his Baath Party neighbor, Bashar Assad, to devise a daring plan to lure the U.S. into thinking it had easily won the war. Why do you think the oil fields and bridges to Baghdad weren't blown up? Why do you think the elite Republican Guards suddenly evaporated? Why do you think no chemical weapons were used against our troops? And no serious resistance was met in Baghdad? Hussein knows that the U.S. will now rapidly sink into a political quagmire, trying to democratize several Iraqi factions that have hated one another for generations. Once the U.S. is mired, Saddam will then begin the real war -- a war of attrition! He plans to use guerrilla tactics -- suicide bombers, snipers, saboteurs -- to kill Americans and assassinate new Iraqi leaders, in order to thwart democratization and steadily erode U.S. public opinion until a newly installed American president in 2005 pulls out (the Vietnam War model). Most disturbing, Russia is backing Hussein in his guerrilla war to defeat the U.S. and return to power! And you'll learn why in a moment! ....

To: JohnM who wrote (98109)	5/13/2003 11:39:45 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

How about yourself? A few observations. The Saudi bombings could be a sign of AQ's weakness and the toll the war on terror has taken on it. I infer this to be the case because SA is probably the softest target AQ presently has due to its government's reticence to stir the hornets' nest domestically. By engaging in activity within the Kingdom, AQ has acted a bit desperately as it is unlikely that the royals will allow this kind of thing to go forward unpunished. Attacking soft targets is not a sign of strength, particularly when the target has been historically a relatively safe harbor. The long and the short of it is that AQ may be fouling its own nest, a sign of desperation and weakness, particularly as the departure of the US military signalled that the Islamists were making progress without the necessity of terror. From a terrorists' perspective, it was a stupid thing to do. The persecution of AQ that supposedly caused the attack is also a sign that the royals may be delivering on the promise to prosecute AQ I assume they made in exchange for the withdrawal of US troops from SA. Just my not-so-humble opinion.

To: JohnM who wrote (98109)	5/13/2003 11:58:57 AM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Respond to of 281500

As for the Saudi business, I haven't a serious clue. It's just too easy to deliberately kill innocent civilians, and in the process get wide media coverage of the "exploits". Anyone who's lunatic enough can do it - the great intelligence and depth of reflection (ha ha) of Tim McVeigh is a good illustration of what idiots can accomplish. At least in McVeigh's case we didn't have to listen to all the lame rationalization about his actions, but we'll surely get our dose for this latest mass murder.

To: JohnM who wrote (98109)	5/13/2003 12:06:47 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 281500

How about yourself? A few more thoughts. How the SA government deals with the latest episode will be critical in assessing its bona fides and present strength. If it goes after AQ wholeheartedly, it is a signal that the US has made progress in moving the royals towards a more aggressive posture vis-a-vis the Islamists despite the presence of influential Islamists within the royal tribe. If it is business as usual, with no aggressive rooting out of the Islamists, we can safely infer that whatever implicit deal between AQ and the royals is still in place but that the Islamists are getting the upper hand since the deal now allows for repercussion-free terror against Westerners within the Kingdom. This would be a very bad sign. It would suggest that the royals cannot control SA and that they are faltering and/or that the Islamist faction within the al-Saud family has the upper hand.