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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (54025)	5/13/2003 1:47:32 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Here's another way to look at it, Mike: Total Available Market: all cell phone systems Served Available Market: cdma cell phone systems You can look at market share for each, and for different reasons. Imo, penetration of the SAM is the more important for stock valuation purposes. uf

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (54025)	5/13/2003 3:08:54 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, Cha2, Eric, UF, thanks for your insight and comments. Mike, “It's Qualcomm's job to use its influence to reduce all obstacles to adoption of its product, including governmental obstacles. The fact that it was not successful doesn't mean that the market wasn't there. “ I can’t disagree with that, excepting you’re asking quit a bit from an small outcast start-up with a disruptive technology that will change the economies of many companies and even some countries. I think we’re going to see it happen, but the resistance to change is huge and is taking a long time to happen because the stakes are so large. I’m not familiar will all the details regarding Apple in your original comparison, but I don’t believe a continent prohibited its use. Eric and Mike- Thanks Eric for sharing the Lehman data. 1. Do they break out their yearly adds and replacement numbers by technology- GSM/GPRS, WCDMA, CDMA2000, etc? 2. They show a replacement rate of less than 30% of the prior year subs. That equates to holding a handset for over 36 months. PCS has stated handsets are replaced on average every 18 months and I read elsewhere the average is two- two ½ years. Your thoughts? Additionally, the new super 3g phones should create a surge in replacement rates, right? 3. Regarding- >> “<< I think it's inaccurate and misleading to place Qualcomm's current "market" as 150 million CDMA subscribers. Using that logic, we would say that Apple's market isn't all computer users; we'd say that it's only those that buy Apple computers. Qualcomm's current market is all cellular subscribers, not just those that happen to buy its CDMA products. >> I agree. The addressable market for mobile wireless chipsets is in handsets destined for new cellular subscribers and that portion of cellular subscribers that replace handsets. <<<<<<<<<<< I don’t believe I said going from 150 million to 1.2 billion subs would happen over night. Just that the market immediately includes the whole world of cell phone users, wherein it the past it didn’t. Cha2 and UF I believe are correctly stating that Qualcomm’s future is what should be looked at and with the whole world as its market place the future is certainly several magnitudes brighter. I believe CDMA handset sales were 87M (22%) out of 400 million in 2002. Lehman is forecasting a total of 517M and 392 replacement handsets in 2005. And, the replacement number may be light considering the over 3 year replacement rates being used and the new 3G devices coming on the market . Qualcomm’s London day presentation last year included a chart showing 2005 forecasted handset sales at 533M, with 329 being CDMA based (avg of Shosteck, Gartner, Strategy Analytics, and EMC forecasts). These same firms forecast 2001 CDMA handset sales at 81M vs the actual of 87M. Going from 87M CDMA handsets in 2002 to 329M in three years represents a 278% gain, a rather gorillaish feat. jim