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To: Eric L who wrote (54026)	5/13/2003 1:50:40 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

Eric L: Thanks for the data in your post. Looking at potential sales possibilities by year makes sense. It is particularly significant IMO that the replacement market is so much larger than sales of handsets to new subscribers. (And that gives GSM a major leg up currently) But that said, there is a need to make clear what the "effective" market for Qualcomm is. Major areas are in reality not open as of now to Qualcomm, viz. current spectrum in Europe. At some point, yes it may be possible for Qualcomm to sell into that market, if and when GSM/CDMA phones become available and most importantly, the European operators make them available to their customers. I for one would consider it dangerous to one's health to hold your breath waiting for that. Where Qualcomm may have an emerging market is when WCDMA networks are commercial and cover a significant footprint - in 2004 in a minor way and in 2005 perhaps a bit larger. Major "cultural" obstacles (to put it politely) are in the way of Qualcomm outside of Asia and the Americas. Qualcomm is gradually overcoming some, viz. India - but it is like pulling teeth and very strong intrenched opposition is there. Government permission is often absolutely essential and money plays a role as does politics and the "old boy" network - a strong example being areas of strong European influence historically, such as in former colonies. To try to be realistic, what is important about Qualcomm's market is that it is expanding over time and is likely to continue to do so as 3G limps onto the commercial scene. Suggest that we wait and see what progress actually occurs. Crystal ball gazing at this point is highly unlikely to be close to what will actually happen so why not relax until actual data is in front of us? Thanks for all the posts you have made here and elsewhere re: CDMA technologies. The results reflect a depth and breadth of research and archive retrieval that are awesome. Best. Cha2