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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (9794)	5/14/2003 9:06:45 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

BB, 1. I agree that fabs will defer new investments as long as they can and view it as being financially responsible. 2. Carl Johnson of Infrastructure several years ago compared this with no limit poker. If the chipmakers want to continue playing they are forced to ante up. Their choice is simple. Pay, or stop playing. Some will stop playing - either by going fabless, or going out of business. This is nothing new. 3. AMAT reported a single order above $100M in its conference call yesterday. This is far short of the boom times but a definite improvement from recent quarters. Can we conclusively stay that boom times are just around the corner once again? No. But after 2+ down years, I strongly suspect that we're getting close to the next up cycle: Jim Morgan's "over ripe bananas" will take effect if nothing else. FWIW, Ian