Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (9813)	5/15/2003 8:02:19 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95656

300mm Revenue We recently saw an article where it was suggested that a 300mm fab requires $6 billion dollars in revenue to be economical. This seems like an awfully high number to us and so we decided to do some modeling of this issue. If you just consider that TSMC has 3 - 300mm fabs in various stages of construction and or planning you have to ask, does TSMC plan on $18 billion dollars in new revenue in the next several year or what about Intel with 4 production fabs underway and a development fab that will probably transition into production at 65nm, do they plan on $30 billion dollars in new revenue? We decided to use the IC Knowledge - 2003 IC Cost Model to model the output of a 300mm fab and then based on some margin assumptions to calculate the required revenue to fill the fab. For example, consider a North America based fab producing 30,000 - 300mm wafers at 130nm for microprocessors. We calculate a wafer cost of $2,624 per wafer. Once we factor in test and packaging cost and the number of die that end up in final product we get an equivalent wafer cost of $5,369. If we assume 90% utilization of the fab and 56% gross margin such as Intel enjoys, then the fab can ship $3.95 billion dollars a year in revenue. Similar calculations for DRAM, Foundry and DSP fabs yield even lower revenue projections, in some cases less than one half! This analysis is presented in detail for Microprocessors, DRAMs, Foundry and DSP products in our new 300mm Watch Database revision 12. Click to learn more about 300mm watch or the 2003 IC Cost Model. icknowledge.com