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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (33730)	5/15/2003 2:52:51 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Kerry - For playing the natural gas crisis - Note - Natural gas storage number come out tommorrow, and that may move the market. Also, this market is getting more jumpy as we haed to a crisis of unknown size - a very cool summer, mild winter, we will see slightly gas higher prices, and stock prices up maybe 20-40 % or so. A hot summer, then a winter that gets cold early (like last year)- gas prices could go up 2, 3, times or more, government rationing, energy becomes a much bigger part of S&P, energy stocks up 50, 100, 200 percent and more. Weather is big unknown varible. Some long range forecasts for summer will be released to the public at the end of May, paying clients will see them a week or two early. Some investment suggestions as of May 14, 2003 1) First step - Energy royalty trusts with high percentage of natural gas. SJT San Juan Trust as US based trust ERF Enerplus Resources, A large Candain trust , trades on NYSE AVN AVN.to, AVNNF, (big Charts CA:AVN.un) Advantage energy a very gas heavy Canadian trust Energy trusts tend to follow natural gas prices closely, pay distributions monthly, and have low volitily - mmove smoothly. A good base position would be to buy the three above. This party (royalty trusts)has been going for a while, looks like it still has legs, however. 2. E&P companies Big, natural gas heavy - DVN, EOG, APC, BR, ECA Good companies, but there stocks have not reacted well to higher gas prices YET. Small, leverage companies - MUCH riskier, jump around a lot- many to choose from, make sure to get several, as one can tank. CHK heavy insider buying CRK lots of debt, no hedges on gas price CRED thin, very jumpy stock. XTO kind of in between. Many others, I've bought CHK the past few days. 3. OSX Oil service comapnies HAL, BJS, NBR, etc. I don't own any of these yet, because the drilling hasn't been ramping that well until now. This party is starting now. *** See Big Dog's Boom BOOm Room thread for more info - actual oil industry people & successful investors on that thread. Coal won't move too much, many of the new plant burn only NG, and can't switch easily. ******* Current positions in portfolios, in rough order of size - royalty trusts - ERF NCN AVN PGH PVX SJT PWI E&Ps CRK CHK CRED ECA ROYL I will look at Bill Gross's comments, thanks.