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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (22615)5/15/2003 8:56:52 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206325
 
<is the very substantial increase in gas rigs that began drilling over the last several months, the earlier of which will be starting to get into production any week now.>

The problem is that this is low yield developmental drilling, which will only stem the production decline modestly. I won't be convinced about the supply side until I see several if not all of the following:

1. big time exploratory (not developmental) drilling
2. some quick permitting and rapid development of not one, but several LNG terminals.
3. a quick fix of these nuke problems
4. a huge increase in oil imports, that allows a lot of switching
5. an emergency "opening up" of Rocky Mt targets, along with rapid pipeline development.
6. opening up of some off limit off-shore targets.
7. release of SPR.

On the Kudlow and Kramer coverage last night, it was clear that Kudlow in particular was engaging in TOHOEism (trust of hope over experience) and cheerleading. That worked briefly during the post-war euphoria, but now it's show time. He will find out soon enough how quickly the US's fragile economy will be swamped, when we start getting regular spikes into double digit NG. Equilibrium will come from the demand side (not supply) in the form of farmers failing to fertilize fields, emergency brownouts, and praying for perfect weather.