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To: RetiredNow who wrote (64049)5/15/2003 9:57:31 AM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 77400
 
mindmeld, RE: Not true. Black Scholes overestimates in a market crash. During a market bubble it underestimates. And then during the "normal" times when the market is not experiencing 2+ standard deviation events, Black Scholes is darned accurate.

Black Scholes does not estimate future values. It estimates current value. It is not a predictive tool.

It does not overestimate the value of an option in a market crash any more than the market overestimates the value of a stock in a market crash.



To: RetiredNow who wrote (64049)5/15/2003 9:59:30 AM
From: rkral  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
OT ... mindmeld, re ".. guaranteed payout, but they only get it as they vest in it .."

I call that cash-bonus plan, which is effectively a salary increase. What do you call it?

Puzzled, Ron



To: RetiredNow who wrote (64049)5/15/2003 12:35:18 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
Not true. Black Scholes overestimates in a market crash. During a market bubble it underestimates. And then during the "normal" times when the market is not experiencing 2+ standard deviation events, Black Scholes is darned accurate.

I'm sure you mean it is accurate for mature companies. But anyway if this system doesn't work in bubbles or crashes isn't it kindof useless?