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To: reaper who wrote (240835)5/15/2003 1:02:40 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 436258
 
yeah -- we just disagree on that -- intermediate term oil prices have been artificially low, IMO -- and natural gas -- ho ho ho.

Enjoy, it's not about marginal price of pulling it out of the ground -- it's about supply perceptions vs reality and real shifts in the geopolitical climate -- why do you think we went to Iraq anyway? WMD?? fiscal stimulus program??



To: reaper who wrote (240835)5/15/2003 1:32:43 PM
From: Perspective  Respond to of 436258
 
Here's a chart explaining what I see occuring:

ttrader.com

Absent money supply changes, those with the least capital intensity get the greatest benefit in pricing power in a debt-heavy, excess capacity environment.

Mix in a Fed trying to counteract the natural deflation, and the average price level may rise, but the relative pricing power effects remain.

BC



To: reaper who wrote (240835)5/15/2003 2:01:20 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Reap:

On the other side of the coin is rising demand (China coming of age, etc.) and the fact that we may well be on the back side of the curve with respect to the finding of new oil pools. However, from my perspecitive I would wager that a cooling global economy will provide downward pressure to the price of oil.

It is going to be interesting to watch and see how this plays out.

Best, Earlie

Best, Earlie