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To: Shack who wrote (73898)	5/15/2003 2:20:18 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I do think phase one is done at least in tech. I had tech in b of b up from the october lows but it's been a little to strong for a B. With the semi's as the exception. They really haven't done much for a while. The semi relative weakness will resolve one way or another but a coin toss would be about as good as me guessing.

To: Shack who wrote (73898)	5/15/2003 2:24:08 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

There is only ONE interesting thing I heard in Froelich argument...one that I think could/will contribute to a cyclical bull in '04, but from lower levels. I struggle to see it being the catalyst, though, for the time of rally you mentioned. Apparently, depreciation rules (was it 1st Bush tax package?) are very favorable for companies to invest in capital equipment before 2005- accerlerated rate (or something like). I could see some companies loading up (in the new tech moderation way-g) in 2004, before close of event. Also, there is/will be some latent demand upgrade from the 1999/2000 cycle....sure, there are not any super new applications, but I could see some modest upgrade kick in. Outside of that, the bear presented some excellent arguments based around tech total % of capital spending (I believe currently high 30s?) which would lead one to conclude is more likely that tech spending going forward (good years) is closer to 7-10% than anything near 15%+. Even at annualized 7%, I believe tech % of overall capital spending of companies gets to 50% pretty quick, and that is an argument that many (including I) have difficult buying.. At current tech valuation levels, TV bear just couldn't see secular bull starting, and neither can I. (My point: Maybe the "winners" in any tech segment will have a shot at 15%+ tech growth, but certainly a minority. Also, there are bi/tri (g) furcations- likely some areas of tech growing faster than others. So, good stock picking could be fruitful- on the other hand, market seems to always figure this out quick (witness Dell vs. CPQ, etc.), so it could already be priced in on an individual basis of course) Sure hope I got the dude's argument right..g