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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve susko who wrote (1358)	5/15/2003 6:37:45 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 4905

Argentina is a great example (as was Russia btw.) how a cleansing systemic collapse , painful as it is, sets up the preconditions for a recovery. as it were, i still think that Argentinian stocks are a good medium to long term play (although probably ripe for pullback in the near term). remember Russia's collapse? their stock market went from 170 or so points at the '98 panic low to over 5,000 in the meantime. in both cases, the state simply didn't have the means and power to successfully intervene and halt the liquidation, which as can be seen clearly now was a most fortuitous circumstance. we by contrast are unfortunately blessed with a very powerful set of interventionists that will fight the liquidation process tooth and nail (again Japan is a good example fo what is likely to transpire) - they will opt for 'muddle through'. after all, which politician or monetary bureaucrat faced with a downturn can be expected to do nothing in response? funny enough, a market based solution would probably do no more harm here than e.g. the 1921 recession (the last 'laissez-faire' recession in US history) and not lead to a total splat as in Argentina. but it is not 'politically feasible'.