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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (98398)	5/16/2003 1:56:30 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

I think they will end up in the "Tent" with us. I think a lot of people will end up in the tent with us, as long as they think it's to their advantage to be there. As soon as they think otherwise, we will have to watch our backs. I think we've probably seen all the overt resistance we'll see for a while. I expect a lot more political organizing, and when it comes time to talk actual policy, the resistance will start to perk up again. The big one, of course, will be the restructuring of the oil industry. Politically, it's a bit of a mess, especially in the absence of any party with appeal across the major ethnic groups. The Sunni leadership was all Baath, which no longer exists. It remains to be seen what Sunni political entities will arise. The Kurds are split. The Shiites have a majority already, and if they form anything vaguely resembling a majority party, they win. I wonder what we will do if it becomes clear that a party advocating an Islamic state is going to win the first election....