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To: Ironyman who wrote (4441)	5/19/2003 11:41:30 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

I believe the Fed will cap longterm rates for a while but they cannot indefinitely the key in my view is imported price inflation from Asian goods if we see a big lift in finished and component product prices from non-China Asia, then it will be impossible for the Fed to contain interest rates without a dollar freefall domestically, rising costs are hurting everyone but that has not translated into higher prices the long bonds will reflect higher prices so far they have not, since stocks dont look all that appealing but all inflation is not created equal the new REFLATION effort has only resulted in bad inflation so far economists are becoming increasingly perplexed they cannot distinguish among... price inflation, price disinflation, price deflation, falling asset prices, rising costs, expanding monetary supply the dollar is clearly being sacrificed in order to keep longterm rates down I think this ends in a monetary crisis with the dollar at the epicenter in the shorterm, I agree with you in the nearterm, I think it will be hard for the Fed to succeed in the longterm, it will be utterly impossible to keep rates down the question becomes: can they hold off rising domestic prices (from whatever source) until Sept-Nov 2004 ??? I say no, hell no, no effing way that is over a year away you seem to think that your call over the last 6 weeks means they can continue over the next 60 weeks I dont agree we will see / jim p.s. how is the USDollar doing so far???