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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (33860)	5/18/2003 1:53:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Ron, <<the Bush administration ceasing the subsidization of Europe and Japan>> ... surely you meant to say Europe and Japan will eventually cease subsidizing the US? Or do you not consider yourself to be a debtor? Hawkmoon Ron the Debtor:0) <<... while the US is effectively devaluing all of those dollar denominated debts held by foreigners by it's currency decline (dollar denominated debt held by Europeans just a couple of years ago is now worth 40% less when converted back to Euros)>> ... yes, yes, but, J6P's pension savings, constituting a greater part of US debt instruments outstanding, is suffering the same dilution, and do not forget, the foreigners do not just buy US debts, but also US assets, which will either be saved or doomed alongside that of J6P assets. ... and eventually, following up our conversation many months ago, rate of financing will rise, and while you may be able to spin a good story around that scenario, I would not want to be in the fireball radius at that moment. On <<AUD>>, I think that vein of richness is about tapped out, and in any case, I have had enough of a fill;0) On <<I believe the actions of the US over the past several years have laid the foundation for a recovery in the emerging markets, protected under a US umbrella of global order>> ... the foundation is laid once the equity gets destroyed to 'cheap'. This is the way of the world, and we will soon find out the rule is universally true, for all of history. I think the wished for Japan route to salvation is not available to most, if not all, nations, including Japan; and so what remains are the Thailand path, Argentine solution, 1929 Depression, or some new fangled New Ec Implosion. <<If will be interesting to see if there is anything either of us are overlooking, or under/over emphasizing in our analysis>> ... until next time I ping :0) Chugs, Jay