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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (33873)	5/18/2003 4:08:34 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi DJ, what can go wrong with this assumption? Recession? Mild summer in the northern hemisphere, resulting in a lower demand for air conditioning... Mild winter in the southern hemisphere, resulting in a lower demand for heating... Global decline in manufacturing, resulting in a lowered demand for electricity, much of which comes from gas-fired generating plants... Basically, if a lower demand for NG should materialize (not anticipated), then a lower price for NG is a likely possibility. Much of the expectations for NG is built around increasing demand, which might lead to a shortage of NG, and resulting higher prices. This is the expected scenario. But great expectations are many times not realized. The contrarian viewpoint (to borrow a phrase from the markets) is that the shortage is not as bad as predicted and therefore prices don't rise to the expected levels. But what do I know? I'm just playing devil's advocate here. KJC