My newsletter from 2 weeks ago..
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED MAY 11TH 2003
OVERBOUGHT BEGETS OVERBOUGHT
Hello out there my trading friends...hope all is well with you and yours...Happy Mothers Day too all those Moms that have done so much for the whole family throughout the years. May GOD Bless you and keep you in the palm of his hand...forever and ever...
Can you say "Overbought" all together now?<g>...Whew! This market does NOT want to go down yet...Bullishness is rampant as we all know, but there's a such a lack of sellers, and only dip buyers still out there..However, there's a but...The butt is that we are not seeing many newer highs in our leading stocks. It's more like churning here at the top...I will say that this could go on for weeks on end till my short term indicators turn down..They must do it together too. Not just one or the other...We are at severe lofty levels on the Hi Lo and Percent of 10...But not on the main coaches the NYSE-OTC-OPTI..they are still quite strong and moving higher each and every week...
I have not seen any signs as yet that the short term indicators are moving down..they have to reverse 6% or 3 boxes down before we get a "change" of trend...I'll see that well before that 3 box move..Because the indicators will stop moving up as the market continues higher, and they will begin to move in the opposite direction discreetly thru the internals...Weeks ago I said "I see stealth buying" near the close of trading each day..Well what I will see is stealth selling instead..I'll certainly keep you apprised of when that occurs so we can get the heck out of the way of the next pullback...I want to say to you all, that if we continue up here thru the rest of May June and early July without a meaningful short term pullback, then I would assume the correction would be quite severe this fall...we'd fall a lot harder and a lot longer to the dismay of the street and overall investors...I'll try to call that potential move early..no grauntees but I should be able to see that coming well ahead of the crowd...It depends on what happens over the next 5-6 weeks...
Anyway let's please stay the course here...we are scalping now...and if we breakout on all the indexes this next week you'll be able to hold overnight for 1 -2 days depending on the magnitude of the move...The street is very nervous, very scared as evidenced by the Equity Put Call levels last week...Several days they were in the 1.40 range..That's large folks..It means people are very scared of this latest move and they're trying to protect themselves of a collapse...I love this because we need heavy skepticism for the markets to move higher..It's a contrarian view I've used for years..trade against the crowd, the "wrong way crowd". Everyone out there is screaming short this move...Well they have paid dearly for it all the way from the March 10th lows...They continue to espouse all the negatives in the markets...Continue to blame SARS, Greenspan, IRAQ, the VIX & VXN, Stock Brokers<VBG> etc..if they could think of anything else it would be laughable...They are wishing, hoping and praying for this to fall down like a rock...Good luck to them folks...It's torn them up and spit them out...If you predict, if you speculate, if you fight a trend, any trend, you're dead as a doornail..Do not fight the Markets..you do not have control...the street does, the big boys do, the pits do, not you or not me...As little guys we follow the footprints of "BIGFOOT"..hehehehehe...you heard me...FOLLOW LIKE IN CABOOSE...Keep your self cool calm and collected here..we killed them the last 6-7 weeks and will continue to try to outsmart the other side...
Let's talk for a minute of some of these names I use in my reports to you and what they all mean...The 10 Week Trading Band is a simple moving average like the 50-100-200 sma's...On the right side of the Point & Figure chart you'll see top- mid- bot...if your at the top your 100% overbought, middle right in the middle, and at the bottom 100% oversold...At the lows of March I was seeing most of the stocks we watch and trade at the "Bottoms" of the 10 week trading bands...Today I am seeing most stocks we trade at the tops of the 10 week. At the same time all of my P&F indicators in Mar were below 30%..Today they are all moving toward 70%, and some of the short termers are at 90%...So you can see we've come a long way from oversold to overbought...Look i want to say to you all, I do not know when this will roll over... I do not know when it will top out..I'll begin to SEE signs of it and report it to you all, but when it's going to happen I have no clue..It has NOT happened as of this date.
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OK LET'S CHECK THE INDEXES AND THE BULLISH PERCENTS OF SAME...ALL MAJOR BP'S ARE DOING FINE...
DJIA---RECENTLY BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 8550, LAST WEEK DURING THAT 2 DAY SELLOFF IT CAME BACK DOWN 4 BOXES(EACH WORTH 50 POINTS) AND THEN FRIDAY RALLIED UP NICELY AND MADE YET ANOTHER HIGHER LOW...NOW WHAT WE NEED IS 8700 TO CONFIRM THE NEXT RUN UP TO 9000. 8250 IS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) BREAKDOWN. THERE IS EXCELLENT SUPPORT AT 7950/8000 AREA FOR NOW. HERE ARE THE RETRACE NUMBERS...38.2%=8164, 50%= 8020, 61.8%= 7876...THE MIDDLE OF THE 10WK IS AT 8200 AND THE NORMAL PB(PULLBACK) AREA.
COMPX---THIS INDEX IS LOOKING VERY POWERFUL TO ME RIGHT NOW..NO SELLERS AND MANY DIP BUYERS IN TECH. QUICK TURNS BACK UP ON ANY PULLBACKS...WE TOUCHED 1530 LAST WEEK CAME BACK DOWN 4 BOXES TO 1490, WHERE BUYERS SHOWED UP LARGE THERE, AND NOW THE $64,000 BUCK QUESTION IS CAN WE BREAK OUT AGAIN AT 1540. THAT WOULD BE A NEW DT(DOUBLE TOP) BUY SIGNAL...1480 WOULD BE A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) SELL SIGNAL SO WATCH FOR THAT NUMBER...THE 38.2%=1423, THE 50%=1390, THE 61.8%=1357, THE MID OF THE 10WK IS 1390...
SOX---4 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS MAKING HIGHER LOWS EACH TIME WITH THAT SOLID SUPPORT(S) AREA AT 300 AND THE RISING BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) AT 305...THIS INDEX RECENTLY TOUCHED 355 REVERSED DOWN TO 340, AND IS NOW TRYING TO MOVE BACK UP TO BREAKOUT(B/O) AGAIN. 360 IS THAT B/O NUMBER TAKING IT TO A BIG TARGET OF 390. THE BP OF THE SEMIS IS AT 54% AND HAS A TON OF ROOM TO MOVE HIGHER TO 74% AREA...THE 38.2%= 327, THE 50%= 317, THE 61.8%= 303...MID 10WK IS AT 320...
BTK---A REAL PRETTY RUN UP FROM THE LOWS AT 310 TO THE MAY HIGHS OF 390. JUST DID A 4 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN TO 370..FRIDAY'S STICK ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) WAS A BULLISH ENGULFING STICK...395 THE NEW IMPROVED B/O 405 THE TOP OF THE 10 WK..330 TO 340 EXCELLENT S THERE...BULLISH PERCENT BIOM IS AT 54% TOPS OUT AT 60-70% HAS LEGS...38.2%= 360, THE 50%= 350, THE 61.8%= 340, THE MID 10WK AT 350...
NDX---BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 1100 RECENTLY AND RAN TO MY UPSIDE TARGET OF 1160 RIGHT ON THE NOSE. JUST PULLEDBACK TO 1120 AND IS NOW AT 1140, SO TRYING TO BOUNCE HERE...1170 IS THE NEW P&F BUY SIGNAL AND ANOTHER COMPLETION OF A BULLISH CATAPULT PATTERN. I HAVE AN UPSIDE PROJECTION TARGET OF 1185. THE BP NDX IS VERY OVERBOUGHT HERE AT 77% TOPS OUT AT 78-82%, SO WE'LL SEE HUH? THE 38.2%= 1078, THE 50%= 1052. THE 61.85+ 1027, THE MID 10 WK IS AT 1060...
SPX---6 CONSECUTIVE SPECTACULAR BUY SIGNALS AND WITH MANY SOLID BULLISH P&F PATTERNS ALONG THE WAY. EVERY 3-4 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN WAS MET WITH HEAVY BUYING PUSHING THIS INDEX TO DOUBLE TOP BUYS ALL THE WAY UP TO HERE...WE JUST DID ANOTHER 3 BOX DOWN TO 920...940 IS THE B/O BUY AGAIN, WITH SEVERE HEAVY O/H R(RESISTANCE) AT 955..I DID SAY MAJOR R RIGHT?...INDEX BP IS AT 62% CAN RUN UP IN A GOOD MARKET TO 74-76%. AMAZING IF IT DOES...38.2%= 880, 50%= 863, THE 61.8%= 845, THE MID OF THE 10 WK IS AT 875...
BKX---4 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS AND IT BROKE THRU TOUGH O/H R AT 800 TOO BOOT. WE ARE ABOVE BOTH THE BSL AND BRL LINES TOO.. WE RECENTLY TOUCHED 810 AND JUST DID A 3BXRVDN TO 795... 815 WOULD BLOW THE DOORS OFF THIS INDEX AND YANK THE DOW UP TOO...775 IS A NEGATIVE BREAKDOWN AREA...38.2%=755, THE 50%= 736, THE 61.8%= 717...MID 10 WK IS AT 740...
SPM3---THE FUTURES...FABULOUS ORDERLY CHART HERE FOLKS...940 THE B/O BUY SIGNAL 916 THE DB SELL SIGNAL..EVERYTHING ELSE IN=BETWEEN IS MARKET NOISE. NICE BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE FRIDAY...38.2%=880, THE 50%= 863, THE 61.8%= 845..THE MID OF THE 10 WK IS AT 876...THE "LINE IN THE SAND" ON ANY PULLBACK WOULD BE A BREAK OF 840..THAT'S A LONG WAY DOWN FROM HERE AT THIS JUNCTURE OF TIME...100 POINTS DOWN...ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL WE MAY SEE 100 POINTS UP BEFORE WE SEE 100 POINTS DOWN<VBG>...
VIX/VXN---CASCADING LOWER AND LOWER AS THE MARKET CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTH. WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR 20 ON THE VIX...AND THE 1ST MOVE UP WOULD BE TOWARD THE 20 EMA DCC..AT 25...THE 38.2% RETRACE BACK UP IS 29 IT'S THE MID OF THE 10 WEEK TOO...
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OK SO WHAT WE SEE HERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXPLOSION UP THIS WEEK AS BUYERS CONTINUE TO BUY THE DIPS, LOOKING FOR A LARGER MOVE HIGHER...WE HAVE A TON OF ECO REPORTS OUT THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON OPTIONS EXPIRATION FRIDAY...LET ME SAY THAT COULD BE A MELT UP IF IT'S GOOD...AND OF COURSE A CRASHOLA IF THEY COME IN BAD..WE ALSO HAVE EARNINGS THIS WEEK OF DELL---AMAT--BEAS--NTAP--INTU, ETC...HERE ARE THOSE ECO REPORTS...WITH THE DAYS..REMEMBER THIS IS OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK...AND ALREADY A VERY VOLATILE WEEK ANYWAY..STAY COOL HERE...AND TAKE PROFITS TOO SOON...
Monday: None Scheduled
Tuesday: Chain Store Sales, International Trade
Wednesday: Import/Export Prices, April Retail Sales
Thursday: NY Empire Index, Jobless Claims, PPI, Business Inventories,
Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Philadelphia
Fed, Semi Book-to-Bill
Friday: Housing Starts, Building Permits, CPI, Michigan Sentiment
LOOKS LIKE IT TO ME THAT THURS AND FRIDAY COULD ROCK OUR SOCKS OFF...YA GOTTA LOVE THIS MARKET FOLKS<G>
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OK LET'S CHECK OUT THOSE STOCKS TO WATCH THIS WEEK..WE MIGHT AS WELL INCLUDE THOSE THAT ARE REPORTING EARNINGS AS THEY GIVE US SOME GOOD MOVES EITHER WAY...
PSUN---AFTER HOURS(AH) MON---VERY NICE CHART HELD A MAJOR SUPPORT AREA AT 17 AND RAN UP TO 23...NEARING THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK...DCC IS A RISING WEDGE HERE, THEY "MAY" SELL THE NEWS...23.90 THE BTL---22.85 THE SST...
WMT---PRE MARKET ON TUES SOLID UPTREND HERE BUT AT R NEAR THE 57/58 AREA...COULD GO EITHER WAY...56.20 THE BTL---55.30 THE SST..PRETTY HAMMER FRIDAY...
AMAT---TUES EPS AH...SETTING UP FOR A POP...HIGHER LOWS AND RIGHT AT THE DT HERE AT 15..16 IS THE B/O BUY SIGNAL...SEMIS BOOK TO BILL ON THURS THIS WEEK COULD KEEP IT MOVING UP TOO...HAMMERED FRIDAY RIGHT AT THE 20 EMA ON THE DCC...15.40 THE BTL...14.65 THE SST...STAY LONG IF IT PRINTS 16...AND OF COURSE CHECK THE EARNINGS REPORT...I LIKE IT LONG HERE...JUNE 15 CALLS ARE A BUCK...
NTAP---BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP ON FRIDAY..FABULOUS DCC CHART HERE FOLKS..EPS AH TUES...BOUNCED RIGHT OFF THE 20 EMA DCC 3-4 DAYS AGO AND POPPED...16.10 THE BTL---15.25 THE SST...I LIKE IT LONG...MAYBE THE JUNE 15 CALLS..NUL-FC
ENZN---THIS BIO TECH IS NOT A BIG MOVER BUT IT HAD A BULL FLAG 2 STICK PULLBACK LAST WEEK AND THEN FRIDAY MADE A NICE POP..EPS AH TUES...15.40 THE BTL---14.70 THE SST...LOOKS NICE LONG HERE...
ADI---EPS AH WEDS---VERY NICE B/O OF A SPREAD QUINTUPLE TOP...AT 33 THIS PAST WEEK...SUPER NICE 2 STICK PULLBACK TO THE UPTREND LINE THEN POPPED FRIDAY..VERY NICE CHART HERE...34.65 THE BTL---33.85 THE SST... I LIKE THIS STOCK LONG...MAYBE THE JUNE 30 CALLS ADI-FF
BEAS---EPS AH WEND---DARK CLOUD COVER 5 DAYS AGO THEN PULLED BACK AND HAD A HALF DECENT STICK ON FRIDAY ON HEAVY VOLUME...IT'S SITTING ON EXCELLENT S AT THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL) AT 10.50...10.90 THE BTL---10.15 THE SST...
BRCD---IT HAS EPS AH ON WEND..IT TOOK 3 MONTHS FOR THIS STOCK TO GIVE A P&F BUY SIGNAL...YEAH I SAID 3 MONTHS...6.70 THE BTL<G>...6.15 THE SST..I MAY DIVE IN HERE LONG...8 IS THE TRIPLE TOP AREA...
INTU---THEY KILLED THIS STOCK I THINK BECAUSE IT WARNED..CHECK THAT FOR ME WILL YOU ALL??..BUT IT'S TRYING TO RUN HERE AHEAD OF EPS WED AH..40.30 THE BTL---39.45 THE SST...WE'LL SEE IF IT CAN B/O AT 42...
NPSP---SMALL FLOAT STOCK THINLY TRADED BUT HAS POTENTIAL..HAD A NICE POP FRIDAY...UP 6%...IT BROKE THRU THE BRL LINE LAST WEEK...21.30 THE BTL---19.60 THE SST...COULD MOVE UP HERE EPS WEND AH...
SBAC---TRYING HERE TO BOUNCE FROM DEEPLY OVERSOLD LEVELS...THIS LITTLE STOCK WE COULD PLAY FOR FUN AND EXCITEMENT...IT'S DOWN FROM 33 IN MAY OF LAST YEAR AND ACTUALLY HIT $.25 CENTS? HOLY COWSKI<vbg>...VERY NICE DCC CHART HERE...OK FOR THE FUN OF IT...I CANNOT GIVE YOU A BUY TRIGGER OR SST..SO BUY IT AND HOLD RIGHT THRU EPS AH WENDS...2.75 IS THE DT BUY SIGNAL...IT'S IN THE TELEPHONE SECTOR ON BULL CONFIRMED AT 46%..HAVE SOME FUN...HEY THIS LITTLE STOCK WAS UP 42 CENTS FRIDAY...
AEOS---HIT A DOUBLE TOP AT 17 AND ROLLED OVER AND DOWN...LAST WEEK TOUCHED THE BSL LINE AT 15.50..BUT IT'S MAKING HIGHER LOWS HERE AHEAD OF EPS PRE MARKET ON THURS..WE COULD CATCH A RUN HERE...THERE'S A TRIANGLE ON THE P&F CHART TOO BOOT...15.90 THE BTL----15.15 THE SST...
PNRA---IN A LARGE CHANNEL FOR MONTHS...THE BOTTOM IS AT 24-25 THE TOP IS AT 36-37 IT'S RUNNING UP HERE AHEAD OF EPS PRE MARKET THURS...JUST HAD A NICE 3 STICK PB ON THE DCC CHART LAST WEEK...LOW VOL STOCK BUT MAYBE WORTH WHILE TRADING IT ANYWAY...33.75 THE BTL---32.70 THE SST...
KSS---GOT LOTS OF DOWNGRADES THIS PAST 2 WEEKS AND IT KILLED THIS STOCK AS IT'S IN THE RETAIL SECTOR...THE STREET IS LOOKING FOR LOUSY EPS...THEY REPORT AH ON THURS...MAYBE THERE WILL BE A SURPRISE?..CHART JUST BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM SO MAYBE NOT<VBG>...53.00 THE BTL---52.15 THE SST...
DELL---CAN IT BREAKOUT AND ROCK HIGHER?...IT'S RIGHT AT R HERE AT THE DOUBLE TOP AT 31.00 I OWN IT IN MY CORE HOLDINGS AND JUST LOVE THIS STOCK...IT'S GOING TO BEAT THE STREET AND ROCK HIGHER...31.40 THE BTL---30.75 THE SST...LOVE IT LONG AHEAD OF EPS THURS AH...AND AHEAD OF HEAVY ECO STUFF THE NEXT AM ON FRIDAY...MAYBE TRY THE JUNE 30'S HERE...DLQ-FF
ADIC---SMALL FLOAT STOCK BUT THE CHART LOOKS INTRIGUING...HAS EPS AH THURS WITH THE BIG BOYS...DCC JUST HAD A NICE PULLBACK AND MADE A DB WITH A BULLISH ENGULFING STICK ON FRIDAY...8.85 THE BTL---8.25 THE SST...I LIKE THIS LITTLE ONE LONG..CHECK FOR ANY PAST NEWS AND LET ME KNOW OK???..THERE'S A SOLID SIDEWAYS BASE HERE AND 9.50 IS A VERY LARGE B/O FOR THIS STOCK...
CSCO---READY TO B/O OUT HERE...16.35 THE BTL---15.40 THE SST---TAKE IT LONG...
INTC---BROKE A DT LAST WEEK ON THE NEWS ON FRIDAY IGNITED THE SEMIS...LOVE THE SEMIS TO TRADE FOLKS AS YOU KNOW...IN A PRETTY HANDLE OF A CUP AND HANDLE...THIS IS GOING HIGHER...19.85 THE BTL---19.15 THE SST...22 IS MY TARGET...MAYBE THE JUNE 17.50 CALLS...
QLGC---SOLID AS ROCK AND READY TO EXPLODE UP HERE MARKET WILLING...IT'S ALREADY TAKEN OUT ALL R AT THE TOP HERE...JUST BROKE THE 200 EMA ON THE WEEKLY CHART TOO BOOT...47.20 THE BTL---46.20 THE SST...I LOVE THIS STOCK LONG...JUNE 45 CALLS
KLAC---BEAUTIFUL 3 DAY PULLBACK OF THAT RECENT TOP AT 43...BOUNCED OFF THE RISING 20 EMA ON THE DCC CHART..LOOKS SENSATIONAL LONG HERE...42.90 THE BTL---41.85 THE SST..THIS LOOKS VERY NICE...JUNE 40 CALLS
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OK HEADSUP HERE....I HATE TO SPECULATE BUT I'M THINKING WE COULD REALLY MOVE HIGHER HERE SHORT TERM IF ALL THE STARS ALIGN THEMSELVES PROPERLY..THE KEYS TO THIS MARKET MOVING HIGHER ARE AMAT & DELL REPORTS AS WELL AS THE 2 MAIN ECONOMIC DAYS THURS AND FRIDAY...WE'LL KEY IN ON THEM NO MATTER WHAT..
I ALSO WANTED TO SAY IF YOU WISH TO TRADE OPTIONS ON ANY OF THESE SELECTIONS..JUST USE "IN THE MONEY" CALLS PRIMARILY...I AM STILL THINKING WE HAVE MORE UPSIDE TO GO...HENCE NO HIGH POLES YET...
AND ONLY USE JUNE/JULY/AUG OPTIONS..NO MAYS...TO CLOSE OF A GAMBLE...SO IF THE STOCK IS 30 BUCKS YOU USE THE 25 CALLS OR THE 27.50 IF THEY HAVE THEM...DO NOT BUY OUT OF THE MONIES LIKE THE 35'S..NO WAY JOSE'...GOT THAT FOLKS..NO WAY...YOU WANT THE WHOLE MOVE UP...
ALERT...THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS............engulfing.....lower case letters and one word...CAN EVERYONE READ THIS? ALERT ALERT ALERT..THERE IS A NEW PASSWORD..............engulfing.......HELLO?
SEE YOU ALL IN THE REAL TIME ROOM..
WARMEST REGARDS
JERRY
jerry olson
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com
jerry.olson@verizon.net |
