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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (33891)	5/18/2003 3:00:27 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

What drop of the Dollar? Dollar is back to mean historical value, wiping out the Clinton's "strong Dollar policy" excesses. Just take any Dollar chart of 7 years or more. stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[pb50!b100!b200!d20,2][vc60][iLl14!Lo14!Ld20]&pref=G

To: KyrosL who wrote (33891)	5/19/2003 1:09:01 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>drop in the dollar has not been accompanied mass dumping of American securities by foreigners<< we're all trapped, I'd say: what's the alternatives?... The main asset of US is J6P anyhow. >>on the one hand it will manage to depreciate the dollar against the Euro and Yen, thus gaining advantage in world markets vs European and Japanese manufactured products << here go the beamers OK, but what about Chinese products. It just means China will increasingly displace European goods - you can shorten US out of this equation -. One of the reasons I guess for increased investment in China btw (if you cant beat them join them). >>On the other hand it will manage to keep domestic inflation down, since Asian countries continue pegging their currencies to the dollar << until they'll have their cellars full of treasuries themselves. Let's see how Chinese consumption develops with time. Would be great for BMW (g). >>So AG may manage to postpone the crash at least until Bush is safely reelected for his second term.<< With terrorism (WMDs yet to be found, homeland security) there's enough issues to shout anybody down. >>The big loser in all of this may turn out to be Europe.<< A lot of problems, as I already indicated a couple of times, are home made. Dont need US to sin. One of my silent expectations is the boost from new EU members (to the tune of cca 100 M consumers) with <10k€ per capita income and wanting more.

To: KyrosL who wrote (33891)	5/19/2003 3:50:32 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Kyros - People have been talking about the dollar & the S&P being over valued fro a long time. I expect many European portfolio managers who have large holding of US stocks shorted indexes or select stocks a year or so ago. Now that the dollar is down 25% and the S&P off, they are covering or picking up bargains. haven't figured out how much could be made by this trade, but it 's a lot. Thanks for RRI and MIR. I'm now looking at ILA (Aquila) - closed at $3.14, about $8 book, about $4 cash. 600 million debt, sale of UK power plant may bring 1.6 billion.. That's preliminary, I'm a long way from DD but I'm buying now...