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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Trader who wrote (83842)	5/20/2003 2:27:24 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

AAII High Bullish %: I've followed and studied the AAII data for many years. It's much more volatile than the other two components of my 3-part indicator, Consensus Inc and Market Vane. What it comes down to is this: When the AAII sentiment spikes up, but the other two components are neutral or lower, that implies not much of anything. When the AAII is high, and the other two are as well, that's time to sell. This past week saw a 12 pt rise in the 3-Survey average, from 47.7 to 54.7% bullish. As I previously documented, significant highs have generally been associated with combined readings between 55-60% bullish. Although the Market finds upward progress difficult at such levels, what the 3-Part Indicator really says is just that the Market will ultimately drop significantly lower as the sentiment drops, it does not say it has to happen within a month or two - just that it will inevitably happen.