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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (40083)5/19/2003 9:23:34 AM
From: zonder  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57110
 
I agree with you that the USD had to come down, but I find it rather strange that they had to keep misguiding the public re their intentions - "We still follow strong dollar policy" and all that...

Personally, I am short the USD ever since Fed governor Bernanke's November 2002 speech where he went to pains to explain just what printing money does to the value of a currency, with alchemist making gold as an example. I do feel sorry for those who believed repeated affirmations of fidelity to the "strong dollar", only to find out that what Snow meant by that was a money that is difficult to counterfeit.

Snow's policy toward the USD is the one thing that gives me hope that we can have an economic recovery in a reasonable period of time.

As you have said, it will help with the economic recovery by narrowing the current account deficit, but the danger is that doubts are being raised about the hard-currency status of the USD. Just today, I read reports from some emerging market countries that have started liquidating their USD reserves in part, opting for a basket of currencies.

Anyway, my understanding is that the relative value of the USD is a secondary issue for the current administration. The hot potato they are carefully handling is the interest rate situation - the country is sitting on a credit bubble, not unlike the spice bubbles of Arrakis in Dune that take down whole villages when they burst :-) Not only on a corporate level, but also individually, and any increase in interest rates can trigger some very unpleasant results.

This is why, imho, real interest rates are currently negative, at the deepest negative level in decades. In order to keep the credit bubble from bursting until the economy picks up a little, interest rates have to stay low, and that is why we hear all this talk of "deflation" in a country with consistent 2-3% inflation every month - that's inflation, not deflation. And of course, in order to make the data look low-inflation, they invented something called "price index for personal consumtion expenditures excluding food and energy" - oh, OK then, pro-forma inflation is low...

I worry about this quite a bit. It is a dangerous game they are playing - the deeply negative interest rate is a perverse inventive to move into riskier assets and not lose money after inflation. This will probably promote another round of mal-investment.

Do you think I am paranoid? It just does not look very healthy from where I sit...