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To: Earlie who wrote (241294)	5/19/2003 9:54:33 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

As far as the EUR is concerned I do agree with MS that the EUR is overvalued by around 10%. THe USD is overvalued against the Yen and other Asian currencies with which we have growing C/A deficits. Unfortunate most of those countries have a peg to the USD and therefore any slide in the USD will not diminish the trade imbalance. As far as energy imports a $5 slide in crude oil lowers the trade deficit by about $4 to $5 billion a month. Taking into account a $34/37 oil price in March, US April / May trade deficits should be lower by around $7 to $10 billion.