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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (11122)	5/19/2003 11:12:23 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Basically I think I agree Russ. If you are holding dollar denominated assets you are losing ground, and treasuries belong in that category. I'm going to get a lock on a refi this week. I'm a little suspicious that LT rates could suddenly reverse course. I've looked at some LT charts on the 30 Yr and it isn't beyond possibility that it is in a 5th down and nearing the end, imho. Alaska has its first case of SARS - airline personnel.

To: russwinter who wrote (11122)	5/19/2003 11:27:48 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

I am not sure that I can add anything, but I believe that the govt. wants the dollar to go lower and will not, willingly, raise interest rates for quite some time. I guess I am saying that the govt. may not want to stabilize the situation right now and will not do so unless forced to. Little joe

To: russwinter who wrote (11122)	5/19/2003 11:31:36 AM
From: philv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Russ, there is a point where the Fed will be forced to actively and massively support the US dollar in the face of inability to finance (t-bills) or in case of large withdrawls of foreign investment. At that point the low interest rate environment will be toast. The consequences for the stock markets will be catastrophic unless the public can be convinced that rising rates are an indication of a healthy fast growing economy, rather than a desperate attempt to prop up the dollar. The Fed is no doubt hoping for an economic miracle so that they can raise rates and solve the dollar problem without affecting the equity markets. The price for the dropping dollar won't be paid or felt until sometime in the future, as importers to the US will try to compensate. Its impossible to know to what extent foreign countries will aid or co-operate to prop up the $US. But wiggle room is slowly being choked off, and the near future will be interesting imho. Phil