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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (9858)	5/20/2003 10:23:14 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

RE: "We are concerned that the significant capacity advantage of 300mm will allow chip companies to slowly add capacity to meet more muted end market growth rates, dampening the potential for a significant capacity cycle." Yes, the cycle will continue to grow slowly. In addition to 300mm, consortiums and foundries will "will allow chip companies to slowly add capacity to meet...end market growth." Prudent, financially sound behavior, that continues the march along the Moore's Law path. A "significant capacity cycle" will depend on significant end market growth. This growth will be driven by technlogy improvements and the movement in time away from the bubble excesses. My 2001 forecast of a semi-equip business peak in 2007-8 and a stock price peak in 2006-7 continues to look reasonable. 2004 looks to be the first year of growth. The rate will accelerate in a financially sound way as end market demand accelerates. By the 2006-8 time frame, the effects of the 2000 bubble will have almost completely disappeared, end market growth will be robust, and semi companies will resort to the less prudent, less financially sound, more aggressive, traditional cap ex behavior. That will be the sign for us to strategically exit.