Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/21/2003 4:17:00 PM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

"Virtually all the names I was pounding the table on pre-BOB are showing lift off. I'm in a strong hold mode there" Yes, I noticed...and my portfolio and I would like to say...YOU RULE!!! ERF was pointed out to me today on another board...that one looks to have some interesting characteristics...

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/21/2003 4:30:03 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Wel, russ, sounds like you're trying to talk yourself into getting more energy stocks. Certainly, they look hot and PM's do not. I think you're probably not right about the hedge funds buying the treasuries and shorting the dollar. The Forex markets are just too big. I think the more likely source is the Asians desperately trying to maintain the status quo. financeasia.com The likely best bet right now is probably gas. According to that analyst, we need sustained weekly injection rates of 130 Bcf to provide sufficient cushion for next winter. 90 won't do it. Prices will be firm, the dividends will continue, and the rig count must rise. Just my opinion. CD

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/21/2003 4:44:06 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

RW, Your views are very interesting, as always. RE: "The fact that bonds keep rallying seems a little inconsistent with a major capital outflow theory?" My thought is, if this is a major bond blowoff (and I think there is a 2/3 chance it is) bond prices could see a major reversal in the near future. Under that scenario, as well as that of a declining stock market, the "capital flight" idea you mention may indeed be unfolding? As far as the general stock market goes I am ultra-bearish ("Kodiak" sized), especially at these price and valuation levels. I have two questions concerning the US Dollar decline. First, assuming the U.S. has changed its mind (now wanting a softer USD) why now? What has changed the mindset? And second, what is the targeted level? A truly "soft" dollar, and the benefits it would provide, could be a lot lower than most people would guess. Dines has talked about a "Coming Competitive Currency Devaluation." A very interesting theory, to be sure. Basically it could engender a race to the bottom, so to speak. DB

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/21/2003 4:52:05 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<Many if not most of us have been anticipating the USD collapse> What I remember is an endless chorus (but definitely not including you) of how the USD was oversold and sure to bounce at 1.05,102,.99,.97,.95,.94 etc etc etc

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/21/2003 4:57:55 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 39344

Russ, on energy, banking and the Dollar In reverse order, foreigners likely are hedging their dollar exposure in US bonds and equities, hence the large commercial long position?? Stock of LEH is in a pretty strong uptrend. Wavering MACD suggests the pace of the advance may be slowing but not ended, imho. Can't dispute the risk in the system. On energy, yes, boom, today....All we needed was Greenspeak to tout the group. Big winners in CRED and EENC today. CanRoys pumping out the cash....Little pickup in Acclaim today.... Like you, I'd sell on a good uptick in the miners into this 144-150 HUI overhead....but as of yet the shares aren't really over bought....Many feeling the rally won't last....as long as that's out there it has a chance of at least getting to the higher number, as Valutrader assured me it would.....Looking for the spike on which to lighten up, however. Be "interesting" to see how the dollar does at 94.11.....a close over which would validate a S/T turn in my opinion....With Soros touting his shorts its likely time for a rally....bet he was covering some today stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcayiay[db][pb40!c200!f][vc60][iut!ul14!up14,3,3!lg!lb14!lh14,3!ll14!ld20!lya7,14,28]&pref=G

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/21/2003 5:49:48 PM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Ugh Russ; Defense stocks are in a major regression period right here, they have been totally underperforming and as a group are set for a reversal.

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/21/2003 7:28:42 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 39344

Thanks for the insights. DAK

To: russwinter who wrote (11302)	5/22/2003 12:59:15 AM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

The odds, based on the mix of policy objectives, now favor a rising equity market, a lower US$ and much a higher US$ gold price. Interest rates are the wild card and the bet is that holders of US$ debt won't sell as there's no other place to go. So rates are going to stay low for a while. Bush has to get re-elected. This will be difficult as the economy has given up many jobs and those jobs each have a vote. So stimulation baby! Or we are going to have a global competitive round of devaluations and gold will increase in all currencies not just the US$ and trouble.