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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34171)	5/21/2003 11:15:28 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I LIKE your point a, Jay. Full speed ahead and damn torpedoes. And re b ... I dont think you'll ever change (sigh & bg)

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34171)	5/21/2003 11:59:43 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Alan Greenspan is talking down the importance of recent weak data Greenspun Published: May 21 2003 20:15 \| Last Updated: May 21 2003 20:15 That Alan Greenspan is talking down the importance of recent weak data, including an accelerated decline in core inflation, adds to the impression that the Federal Reserve's two-part statement on growth and inflation risks reflected a split among its committee members. The Fed chairman avoided the word "deflation" in his prepared testimony on Wednesday, later saying that it was a minor threat, and that the Fed had already taken out insurance with rate cuts to date. The view that recent weak manufacturing and labour market data are war-tinged remains respectable. Mr Greenspan said that "many more weeks of data will be needed to confidently discern the underlying trends". There are five weeks until the next policy-making meeting. The market has been pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut. That is perhaps best interpreted as a 50 per cent chance of a 50 basis point reduction. Unless the data improve, markedly, the Fed is going to have to act, and a quarter point cut will not help anyone. Mr Greenspan repeated that the Fed was not going to run out of ammunition and that it would start buying longer dated Treasury bonds if needed. The expectation of such is the only way to explain longer-dated yields at historic lows. The Fed has already been helped by unorthodox monetary policy. If John Snow, Treasury secretary, is not trying to talk the dollar down, he has become remarkably philosophical. Japan will continue intervening and it is already the case that a stronger yen, and a deepening Japanese crisis, are not in America's interests. If the European Central Bank is going to remain in denial then at some point similar calculus will apply to the euro.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34171)	5/22/2003 12:39:27 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Weak dollar is a double bonus for Brazil, says BNP Parisbas Bernard Mencier as the USD weakens against Y and Euro. Brazil gets a double benefit since it operates within the USD area and its exports (as it happens with the US goods) become more competitive. The negative side is that it put pressure in inflation which is not the case of the US which is risking deflation now. So Brazil economic policy makers have less room for maneuver than the US counterparts. But we can 'import' deflation from the US and this balances the equation again. How about exporting to Euro zone, stagnated, not growing, risking deflation too and with its inevitable protectionism? But looking to the numbers, Brazil's exports to Euro zone grew by 24.98%, which is a lot more than the growth of exports to the US which was at 18.81%. Which is explained by the fact the exports to Euro zone were delcining last year. Protectionism and all, Euro zone exports accounts to 25% of all Brazilian exports. Exports in the first trimester 2003 to the US were USD4billion vs. USD3.6 billion to Euro zone. So exports -to both sides of the Atlantic- are not bveing affected. But not are all good news. Overall exports will depend of the global economy, increase in trade as a whole, which, today, don't show a very positive prospects. But among all negatively affected, Brazil is among the least affected and can be seen as gaining when everything is considered.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34171)	5/22/2003 4:35:47 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<interest rate temperature rises> Now you're talking! It's taken 18 months longer than I thought. Mqurice PS: Your gloating value, added to golf price, must be a LOT of fun. You don't even need to actually gloat to get your money's worth.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34171)	5/22/2003 5:35:43 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Today's report comes from the Ritz theater that doubles as an internet cafe in Thermoplous.....I gotta check in on my trenches twice a day. Tomorrow it's back to Wapiti so far they seem to have the lead in the derby. Close to the park,good fishing and the winters are mild ...Acording to the locals.On my last swing through there saw an old farm house to rent for $650 per mo.If it's still there I might grab it. << interest rate temperature rises,>> About that.....Duzn't seem to be following the script...Greenspan wouldn't dare and the long bond's customers seem to think that US bonds are,in spite of the buck, still the best of whats out there.....Whata country... << will do wonders for immuno-defense of the rest of your portfolio:0)>> OFFENSE is the best defense! ...I think...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (34171)	5/22/2003 8:42:15 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 74559

Ooh Jay, I just received this bit from one of the conspiracy e-mails [EDIT: Gold, Commodities, Midas du Metropole] that goes around, and it directly concerns your <<‘I bet Maurice is Wrong’ trade ... gold ... JPM>> mentioned here Message 18964873 The e-mail reads: "The big gold news of the day concerns gold derivatives. There is a commotion going on behind the scenes in the bullion-banking world. Word has it that Newmont Mining is taking it to one of the Hannibal Cannibals, JP Morgan Chase. It has to do with their Yandal operation in Australia, which Newmont inherited when it took over Normandy. That property has 3 million ounces of gold reserves with a 3.7 million ounce hedge on – one that is going underwater as the gold price soars. Morgan has called Newmont for a margin call. Supposedly, Newmont is telling Morgan to stuff it, or more appropriately, if you insist on the margin call, the property is yours. I’m told that Newmont is willing to buy back their hedges from Morgan, but only for so many cents on the dollar. In other words, they are playing hardball. Newmont can walk because the property is "fully encircled," meaning it is a stand-alone project. Of course, it won’t do much for their bullion-banking relationships. The following was filed yesterday with the SEC: sec.gov Newmont Yandal Operations Limited ("Yandal") advises that on May 21, 2003, it received a notice from a gold hedge counter party alleging a right to terminate a gold hedge counter party contract with Yandal before its scheduled maturity, based on the alleged occurrence of an early termination event under the contract. Yandal estimates the payment required to be made under the contract would be approximately U.S. $46 million based on an assumed spot gold price of A$560 per ounce. In addition, Yandal also received notice today from Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) ("Newmont") that it intends to make an offer to acquire all of the 8 7/8% Senior Notes currently not owned by Newmont, in addition to all of the gold hedge counter party contracts entered into between Yandal and counter party banks. -END- The problem is not a small one for Morgan if Newmont walks. The hedge is 700,000 ounces more than their reserves and that’s if someone is mining them. 700,000 times $370 gold is $259 million. At $470, it’s $329 million. If the mine somehow becomes inoperable, the problem could become catastrophic. It serves Morgan right for allowing that kind of hedge in the first place. That’s not a hedge, it’s a speculation, put on back in the Hay Day of the gold rigging operations. What goes around comes around. Chase influenced Newmont to put on a big hedge at the bottom of the market around $265 gold, right before the Washington Agreement was announced. The ramifications for the gold industry could be dramatic if Newmont sticks it to Morgan. Gold is only at the $370 level. What happens when gold rises hundreds of dollars per ounce? There is liable to be one counterparty risk problem after another. Ever hear this one before?" Could it be that we are witnessing a variation of this script ? gush, gush, gee whiz, oohs, aahs, in anticipation: Message 16025306 I wonder what would happen if Soros and his buddies also put on the "I bet Maruice is Wrong" trade? Well, actually, I do not wonder, because Maurice would then be wrong:0) Chugs, Jay