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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (1685)	5/22/2003 10:18:35 AM
From: zonder	Respond to of 4912

Thanks. I cannot understand his reasoning for where the demand will come from going forward, though. Even if the interest rates stay low a while (and I agree they will), that only means mortgage delinquencies will not explode. It does not mean everyone will be tempted to buy a second or a third mortgage...

To: ild who wrote (1685)	5/22/2003 10:19:51 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 4912

<If interest rates are going to stay low awhile, as Alan Greenspan keeps indicating, then home builders continue to be the place to be.> <The bear case is weak. Interest rates aren't going up anytime soon. If they do, that would suggest the economy is strengthening, which would lead to higher employment and cushion a slowing housing market. If you believe the economy is falling out of bed, tech and autos are much better shorts.> I couldn't disagree with this more... they'll be the place to be... until they're not. IMO the deep cyclicality far outweighs the bull points after the boom we've had. THEN when a down turn does occur the big boyz will find it much harder to take business from the small guys [which, in this state includes anyone with 2 nickles to rub together] when it [the business %] shifts from plowing large swaths and throwing up whole communities to "infill" jobs in established communities, custom homes, and overall smaller scale stuff. dAK disclaimer... I've been shorting homebuilders and FNM again lately.