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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (9876)	5/22/2003 12:50:08 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95738

But will not change cash flow one cent and, in my humble opinion, will have zero impact on stock prices. I'm not so sure. Valuations are always a concern even if on a relative basis alone. The last four days in the market we have seen some tremendous amount of put buying as we head around the bend towards the summer months. That may be why we are seeing this rally today. But who is buying all those puts and why? Although the market has had an extended run with many early bull market characteristics showing up in the technical side of the equation I have real concerns. Fundamentally this quarter's beating of already lowered earnings expectations does not necessarily mean new bull market. There are a number of sentiment indicators that have been pointing to a top for several weeks now. They are still screaming sell if you ask me. On top of that we are beginning to see enough divergences in the technical indicators to suggest that this may be the final run before what could be a nasty sell off in my humble opinion. If we do get that sell off then the expensing of options that apparently will be mandated by law will be just one more excuse for journalists to use when the SOX retreats this Summer. Please keep in mind I realize I could be wrong. That's why I am 100% in cash waiting for a run higher or confirmation of a breakdown before shorting much of anything at this time. If I am right though then this has been nothing more than an extremely nice bear market rally that ultimately will fail allowing the pundits to question stock valuations and P/E's for numerous stock sectors and industries. The effect of option expensing will be discussed as a valuation concern and could serve as a drag on these stocks if the market does turn south. JMHO, RtS