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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (74430)	5/23/2003 1:45:12 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

That' pretty much right. I think the key is that these MA's pretty are pretty much oscillators. The chart which bcrafty linked shows a 21-day MA of the equity P/C at .67 and rising. vtoreport.com Does it not look like a good bet that this thing is going to oscillate back to the high .70's now? Sure looks like its turned up to me.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (74430)	5/23/2003 10:40:49 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Jorj, thanks for the insight I wasn't going back that far, therefore I missed those trendlines you drew. In my earlier post I was referring to the $CPC marking the December and January tops being in the low .60s. I see you're following the "Big C" setup in the SPX off the October low. It seems that many people (at least many here) are skeptical of the Big C and instead are following other patterns, including us presently being in (or recently concluding) a "little C" from the March low. There are others (including Zoran Grayer) who still consider the most recent move to be an A-B-C-D-E off the July low. If one follows that scenario and thus begins his trendline at that low then it is almost flat instead of rising. So, in other words, I suppose the lines depend at least partially on the larger E-wave setup one is following. It's difficult to ignore the current sentiment indicators that may indicate more down ahead, and I find it completely understandable when people ask what kind of news is going to move us higher. Nevertheless I still have a nagging suspicion (unsupported by indicators of any kind) that there will be some kind of news that will come out of nowhere that will push us higher for another month, such as intervention to support the dollar or a rally in anticipation of a June rate cut, or something like that. Of course these are just speculations on my part, any I'm not relying on my speculations for playing the market, but I've seen this type of thing happen too many times to realize that it must be kept in the back of one's mind at the least. Just when everyone assumes it's safe to go comfortably short, . . . . SURPRISE!