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To: JRI who wrote (74433)5/23/2003 9:22:51 AM
From: John Madarasz  Respond to of 209892
 
I saw that drop yesterday...i was looking for it, and i think it's important. Somebody else posted the #'s here earlier, but you might have missed them

IIA #'s next week will reflect the Monday the 19th swoon that this week's release did not.

Ideally pullbacks would want to maintain relatively bullish sentiment figures if they are to be deep ones.

buuut I think it's also interesting to note the current levels of the Bullish % Indexes. I'm not sure why some services consider these measures as sentiment, since they simply could not be more objective measures of supply and demand. There is no way to argue that they are not at record all time oversold levels.

If everyone who has wanted to buy has bought per the bullish %'s, and Mutual Fund Inflows are on the brink of drying up, and the negative seasonality factor is now in force as well as some important cycles, and the ppt doesn't exist and the FED doesn't support the Mkt, what will hold things up now?

As of March, Cash to Asset ratio's of Mutual funds were at 4.8%, slightly up from April's 4.3% but only slightly above all time record LOWS. After this latest rally chances are good they are much lower now...

Scroll down here to see the Fund inflow chart in this link, one of the most important i think, and it does not bode well for the bulls here intermediate term...

cross-currents.net



To: JRI who wrote (74433)5/23/2003 9:38:09 AM
From: Shack  Respond to of 209892
 
I would add that I think it is indicative of a trend change. Similar to the high P/C readings of the last few days which are coming off of a fairy low 21-day MA reading.

After all you have to get some bearish sentiment to induce selling.

The question is how quickly we get to bearish extremes.