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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (22963)	5/23/2003 4:10:38 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 206281

<become a trader again> For what it's worth, I'm hanging tough on holding positions, as I believe the trend is roughly higher. In a few months we will likely go parabolic. I will however start writing the occasion out of the money covered calls, after hard prices charges like we had this week. Have some GSF June 25, PDE June 20's and NBR June 45's written, and finally sold a third of my NR yesterday at 5.99.

To: excardog who wrote (22963)	5/23/2003 5:22:54 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206281

Excar - Many of the NA NG heavy E&P's appear to me to be much more undervalued than the Oil service / driller leaders. Against the backdrop you mentioned, I think the shit is going to hit the fan with the first good high CDD period. This should occur within 3-6 weeks. If NG is going for ~$6.50 now in NYC spot, with the most favorable weather conditions I dont want to be underweight when spot prices explode along with the futures. I expect to hear soon earnings forecasts for the land side being revised up as the drilling ramp up seems quicker than anyone expected. The first whiff of serious rate increases will propel these stocks higher. Funny I have not heard "lack of prospects" for a few months now. Just the same I made some very good quick money on NBR calls that I closed the last of today. It may have a point or two more in the near term, but I think it stabilizes $45 for a few weeks before it hits the low $50's. My only leverage now is PXD & EOG calls and I am about 95% equity invested and free of margin.

To: excardog who wrote (22963)	5/23/2003 8:33:01 PM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206281

Yes. Yes. Yes. I am very concerned about the condition of the market because it does occur to me that the pinheads running the government agencies have so forgotten that supply matters that we may have a worse energy crisis than in the 1970's just due to their wrong-heading thinking and lack of planning. If we have a very hot summer, what can we do? Just shut down the economy (electricity + fertilizer+chemicals+etc.) and wait for gas reserves to rebuild, or do we just let people freeze next winter. I realize this is an oversimplification. The problem is that once the general public realizes how bad the situation is we have two very big problems: 1) It is too late to do anything constructive (already true), and 2) Once the investing public can see that there isn't enough energy to fuel an economic recovery (we aren't there yet) the market will tank. It may even crash if enough investors get smart at once. In a major selloff all stocks will tank. Are others worried about this? Ed (PS - Still in)