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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nextrade! who wrote (10784)5/23/2003 6:30:57 PM
From: nextrade!Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Don't wait for the worst

A home equity line can bail out the unemployed

bankrate.com

By Holden Lewis • Bankrate.com

You can tap your home's equity to pay the bills if you are laid off. But you have to take action while you still have a job.

There are two ways to extract equity from your home without selling it or refinancing the mortgage. One way is to get a home-equity loan -- a lump sum that you repay over a specified period. The other way is to get a home equity line of credit, which behaves like a credit card with a revolving balance. You draw against it when you want, like using a credit card, and as you repay the balance, the credit becomes available again.

Traditionally, home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, have been used to pay for periodic expenses such as multistage house renovations or college tuition. A line of credit can be a sound way of meeting normal living expenses, too, during a time of unemployment.

A lot of people are discovering the pain of unemployment. More than 400,000 people have filed jobless claims each week since early February. The national jobless rate climbed to 6 percent in April, and it's 7.6 percent in Oregon, the state with the highest rate.


Many unemployed people dip into their savings, says Anthony Hsieh, president of HomeLoanCenter.com. "But if you don't have a cash savings account, you can draw from your home's equity, which is a form of savings," he says.

Don't wait for the worst
In unemployment, as in comedy, timing is critical. As Hsieh notes, credit is easily available when you don't need it and hard to get and expensive when you need it.

That means that the time to get an equity line of credit is before you lose your job, not afterward.

"You're not going to qualify if you don't have a job," Hsieh says. If you wait until you're unemployed to borrow against your home's equity, you will have to apply with high-rate subprime lenders. Most equity lines of credit don't have closing costs. People with good credit often can get an equity line of credit for the prime rate or a little higher. Right now, the prime rate is 4.25 percent.

You might get queasy at the thought of getting deeper into debt while unemployed. Certainly, it's something to avoid if you can. Sometimes you can't.

For those who worry about their job security, getting a HELOC "is a very smart move," says Kay Shirley, a certified financial planner, "because if they get in a bind and they absolutely need money while they're looking for a job, it is so much better to put it on a low-interest line of credit on their home than on a high-interest credit card."

That choice -- between a HELOC and a credit card -- is faced by many unemployed people, says Shirley, who is president of Financial Development Corp./Mutual Service Corp. in Atlanta.

Of course, "they have to be careful not to abuse that line of credit because they run the risk of losing their home," Shirley adds. "It should not be seen as a source of funds to tap for items that you want to have. It should be seen for items that you need to have."

In other words, no dining out, no vacations.

Shirley says borrowing against home equity while unemployed should never be the first resort. She says the first resort is savings. Then she corrects herself and says the first resort is to find a job -- any job. Then she corrects herself again: "The first thing to do is cut expenses," she says -- raise the house thermostat in the summer, cancel cable, dump the cell phone, mow the lawn yourself instead of hiring someone to do it.

That makes borrowing against home equity the fourth resort.

Deducting the interest
Another benefit to borrowing against one's equity is that, in many cases, the interest is deductible from federal income taxes. But it's not always deductible, and the rules can get tricky.

"I would encourage people to check with their tax professionals if they are planning to use home equity to get by," says Gregg Wind, a certified public accountant in Marina del Rey, Calif.

Generally speaking, the interest on up to $100,000 of home equity debt is deductible, no matter how you use it. But you might be able to deduct interest on an even higher amount of equity debt if you use it for specific purposes, such as for home improvements.

Most equity lines don't exceed $100,000, "so the lenders probably are mindful of the government's limits," Wind says.

-- Posted: May 22, 2003



To: nextrade! who wrote (10784)5/25/2003 7:47:18 AM
From: nextrade!Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Waiting for Godot

Regional economy: Better get used to it

seattletimes.nwsource.com

By Stephen H. Dunphy
Seattle Times business columnist

In the famous Samuel Beckett play "Waiting for Godot," the central story line involves two characters who continuously wait for the arrival of someone — or something — named Godot. He never comes.

Anyone waiting for a return to the boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s is waiting for an economic Godot. That's the lesson to be learned from the news last week that the unemployment rate for the state rose again, returning to 7.3 percent.

While that seems high compared with the past five years, in reality it is very near the average unemployment rate for the state for the past 25 years: 7.2 percent. The lesson: These are not hard times. These are average times. And they are more likely to continue into the future than a return to bubble years.

For many, like Seattle software engineer Gary Rambo, who has been unemployed for nine months, these are far from average times. They don't have jobs. They can't find jobs. They've been out of work for many months.

He is "beginning to suspect that the job category 'software engineer' has been redefined down to a $15/hour contract-programming gig."

He is among the 2.5 million people nationally and the 96,000 locally who have lost work since the bubble burst.

The burst bubble

You've heard that often: It was a bubble economy, and it burst. But what you don't often hear is the economic history of bubble economies. A bubble is an unusual event. It's like the "big one" earthquake. It's a 500-year flood. It can happen, but economic history adds this footnote: Once it's gone, it's unlikely to return.



What we saw in the bubble economy — job growth, low unemployment, a tight labor market, option incomes, a stock market that made and unmade billionaires, the "new economy" where old rules no longer applied — is gone, poof, probably forever.

It doesn't mean the economy won't grow again. But it will be closer to the long-term average than the extraordinary period of the bubble. Some back-of-the-envelope numbers can help.

• About 1.28 million people were employed in the Seattle area in April, based on figures from the Employment Security Department. That's down 90,000-plus from the peak in 1999-2000 of about 1.37 million jobs.

• Picking a modest annual job-growth figure of 1.5 percent a year, the Seattle economy adds about 20,000 jobs a year. At that rate, the region hits the peak in employment again around 2007. The economy grows — much slower than the go-go years, but at about the long-term average.

• If job growth were 5 percent — as it was in one of the bubble years — the economy would add about 64,400 jobs a year. That's a long way from 20,000 a year, which helps explain why Rambo is having trouble finding a job.

• In addition, an unemployment rate of 7.3 percent understates the problem — it measures people looking for work. Thousands have become so discouraged they no longer actively seek work, so they are not counted as unemployed.

Seattle hard hit

How we got here is well-known.

Seattle had a high concentration of the industries hardest hit in the recession — aerospace, dot-coms, telecommunications and software. Microsoft continued to hire, but other software companies did not, resulting last year in the first decline of software jobs ever in the state. All of that was worsened by the Sept. 11 attacks.

What's ahead?

Here's what usually happens in the Northwest: We hit a downturn because of Boeing, a national recession and usually some other unexpected factor. The terrorist attacks were the outside factor this time around.

After a recession has run its course, however, we usually have two things going for us. Boeing rebounds, and consumers — who have had to watch spending, especially for housing — start spending again. Housing usually takes off, helping to spark the economy.

This time, Boeing is likely to continue to cut workers rather than add them as the airlines industry reels from Iraq, the SARS outbreak and orange-level alerts. Low interest rates have kept the housing market perking along throughout this period. So the two big engines that usually pull the economy ahead are derailed.

Jobless recovery

If you mark the end of the national recession as late 2001, it has been about 16 months. This far past a recession, the economy here is usually doing well, with fairly robust job growth. But from December 2001 to April, job growth totaled 0.1 percent — a good definition of a jobless recovery. How do we get out of this mess?

It's a tough message to hear, but the only way out is time. Nothing is on the horizon that would provide any huge stimulus to growth. Boeing is still laying off. Microsoft is hiring, but cautiously. There is still too much overcapacity in telecommunications. The state's budget crisis removes the public sector from any growth scenario.

Biotech? Possibly, but even if it blossomed here, it would provide some well-paying jobs but relatively few in number.

The Air Force tanker contract for Boeing will help. But watch the hyperbole — the contract provides a good, steady source of jobs for workers and profits for Boeing, but it is not a huge generator of either.

Back to Godot. The very first line of the play has one of the two main characters, Estragon, saying this: "Nothing to be done."

Stephen H. Dunphy. Phone: 206-464-2365. Fax: 206-382-8879. E-mail: sdunphy@seattletimes.com